Quants

[macdon02]

Ok it's time for the discussion. Are markets predictable and is there a cycle to everything due to human reaction/emotion? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renaissance_Technologies One can argue that the big boys are pushing the markets, however the flip side is, have the found the hidden order through AI? There's more then just these guys doing it but it isn't talked about much, you need to dig. So are markets simply cyclical and humans react? Or are we the masters of all, controlling of everything from the earth to finances? Personally I think we react due to emotion. Supply and demand are all in response to price, which has a predetermined route.

[farmaholic]

I'm in the shallow end right now...I can't think that deep. Relax in the hot tub next.

We react to prices and prices react to supply and demand. Money seems to drive everything. If there were no Oats and there was huge demand would you grow them for $1/bu? If there was hourds of canola and no demand but it still sold for $12/bu.....

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Martin Armstrong believes he has found the underlying cycles to everything. Not sure I quite agree.

If there really were predictable cycles, then too many of us would discover them and attempt to profit from them, which in itself would disrupt the cycle, which would prove that they aren't predictable.... A circular argument.

Read the book Chaos, it is an interesting perspective on the subject of order.

Psychologists should be the ones studying markets, to learn about emotions, and successful traders should be the ones writing the psychology textbooks. They know how to quantify emotion.

[farming101]

These types of investors naturally remove "doing the right thing" from their repertoire

Do investors in companies and financial instruments have to be ethical or only the companies and industries they invest in?

Some words that were used in the article:
- secretive
- rapid trading
- campaign contributions

Stages of some successful investors:
-wheel
-big wheel
-steering wheel
-the one steering the wheel

Having said that having any type of insight into the workings of the marketplace and how to invest successfully is a good thing. Data processing is part of it.
Emotion sure has a lot to do with investing. I don't know if totally removing emotion from investing is the answer to more success. I would think it could be good as long as one doesn't remove emotion from their whole existence. It happens
Investing is often about taking a chance on there being a return on investment. The outcome may not be clear. Sometimes the investor is broke and long gone by the time the stock or company or commodity is profitable.