Ok is it even worth Growing a Crop in 2017. Really What input will be cheaper.

[SASKFARMER3]

Just looked at the board the last few days prior to the weekend and today and a sea of red. Every thing is pointing to lower pay for 2017 and on.

Yes its early but this week coming up with provincial budget and Fed budget farmers are going to get hit hard and really hard. Every thing will go up JT would have us paying a tax for air that would kill us vs the Americans. But the american farmer isn't sitting really healthy also. Budget cuts will gut some programs down their.

Then the supply just keeps getting bigger. South America increases the crop size just about every day.

Then we have the games that get played by the big buyers China India and Egypt.

Funny cant fumigate in canada because it doesn't work in cool climates yea thats a easy way of saying we don't need your high priced pre bought shit so were going to play a game and put it all back on you.

Then China is the supreme market manipulator. Every time they make up shit to distort the market watch i bet they are buying on the down side all way. Its legal but bull shit.

Egypt over the weekend delayed or rejected Russian and Argentina grain. Yea Canada and USA are out of that market so now they think they can do it to the guys who picked up the slack.

Equipment is getting insane.

Chem fert seed etc all are going up and no end in sight.

Land taxes or school taxes or fuel taxes will eat up a big chunk.

Land costs have skyrocketed and rents are idiotic.

So what will farmers do. Yes we will all plant a crop again in 2017 but were are we all going to trim because i figure most will be trimming what snake oil they add or fert or chem or disease control.

A bogus claim that your insurance will save you is a nice warm and fuzzy thing but reality is will it pay.

So is what we talked about last fall happening. All countries are on a roll and increasing our carry over world wide no shortages are around and we still have Europe and USA and Russia and finally Canada to grow a crop. What if we all hit a barn burner again.

What will 2018 look like.

Ah farming it just cant get any better hey!

[Hopalong]

Thought Sask crop planning guide for last year was believable, not so much for this year (2017).
Projected return for most crops covers variable cost but some pretty big anamolies on returns or loss above or below fixed and variable.
Lentils in brown soil zone show return above total cost of $406 per acre, winter wheat on black soil projected return $7.10 below variable cost.
Should look at Manitoba.

[fjlip]

Wow SF3, that post is a real downer, you know it's first day of SPRING and International Happiness Day,
maybe for all but primary producers at the BOTTOM of the value chain. Despite all the negative points for farmers, everybody else will make MORE money IF we grow more volume. So let's all Grow Forward, be an
Agvocate, produce vital raw products at a loss for the 98% that only EAT.

[Hopalong]

Manitoba website shows fewer extremes, shows much better profit prospect for winter wheat but leaves out lentils and not much info on barley.

[tweety]

You poor suffering millionaire that travels all winter. Hard times indeed.

[SASKFARMER3]

Ok teeety how profitable does your farm look like for 2017 with the bs with lentils and peas. Contracts only as good as paper they are written on.

Just saying we're starting 2017 with first group out of the shoot (South America) with a boomer. If it continues where will we be.

It's from a realist not half full or half empty just reality sucks.

[farmaholic]

Unfortunately every threat you listed is from with in our own borders....doesn't take into account foreign competition.

Canada is probably one of the most lucrative countries for the Ag "Industry" to exist in. NEVER have so few supported so many!

[tweety]

SaskFarmer, i've never lost a crop and calculated all my losses in the spring before the snow has even melted.

As usual, when things look the worst is the year you make the most money. Farming is like that. Let's talk about it again in October.

[Guest]

agree with tweety , just when things look impossible . well you know how it goes. don't think it can be any worse than it was here last year , lol. nowhere to go here , but up

[fjlip]

Ran the actual 2016 numbers through Field Manager, 2017 costs are slightly less due to fertilizer.
At 45 canola breakeven=$6/ bu. At 50 wheat breakeven= $4.70, all costs.
This does not include any return to labor and investment. Estimating another 0.75/bu for that.
For our small operation. What do others see?

[MBgrower]

Sometimes its not an income problem for businesses, rather lack of control on the expense side.

Similar to how governments operate. Spend, spend, spend

[newguy]

last year about this time his post was Drought how long can you guys last till it rains.

[farmaholic]

Kinda hard to get the money back once it's spent...

Grow it and give it what it "needs" then hope the market provides a price that makes the whole process profitable based on the yield, quality and price.

Who the **** knows where prices will really be. Some crops have signals that would say don't grow them but in the end who really knows.

A lot of fretting about a lot of unknowns... yield, price, quality, offshore market competition, unknown discretionary crop expenses.

An interesting way to make a living.... who in their right mind would gamble like this?

[Guest]

Kinda hard to get the money back once it's spent...

Grow it and give it what it "needs" then hope the market provides a price that makes the whole process profitable based on the yield, quality and price.

Who the **** knows where prices will really be. Some crops have signals that would say don't grow them but in the end who really knows.

A lot of fretting about a lot of unknowns... yield, price, quality, offshore market competition, unknown discretionary crop expenses.

An interesting way to make a living.... who in their right mind would gamble like this?

as much as a guy *******, I wouldn't have it any other way , lol !

[SASKFARMER3]

I sill say watch the USA what happens their were two to three behind.