Canola old crop bloodbath

[farming101]

Iceman, you have an entry point picked out?

Nothing's too clear after this quick drop. There are weak signals at 482-483 and 475 but nothing strong until 465. Cheap is only half way down. On sidelines looking for an uptrend first.

[Oliver88]

You referring to the July futures F101?

[farming101]

Correct

[farmaholic]

I've been so quiet on this issue you could hear a pin drop.....

My silence is revealing!

I don't wanna to talk about it!

[danny W1M]

Here all you chumps think canola went down, haha,
Maybe have a look at the crush margins !!!
Up nearly a buck a bushel over the last month.

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/news/futures/ICE_Canadian_Canola_Board_Margin_Index_Close_27385 0679.html

In fact, here's even a article about what's going on.

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/news/futures/Sharp_Futures_Drop_Sees_Canola_Crush_Margins_Rise_ 273851915.html


Just for those that can't copy a paste!

WINNIPEG, MB, March 23, 2017 (CNS Canada), Mar 23, 2017 (Commodity News Service Canada, Inc. via COMTEX) --

The Canadian Canola Board Margin Index, as posted by ICE Futures Canada, is a formula developed by the members of the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association (COPA).
Today Day Ago Week Ago Month Ago Year Ago
Mar 23/17 Mar 22/17 Mar 16/17 Feb 23/17 Mar 23/16
Cdn$ US$ Cdn$ US$ Cdn$ US$ Cdn$ US$ Cdn$ US$
May17 114.39 85.79 107.11 80.25 90.53 67.98 77.51 59.13 96.33 72.96
Jul17 113.13 84.85 106.22 79.58 91.20 68.49 79.73 60.82 96.17 72.84
Nov/Oct17 118.85 89.14 117.96 88.38 109.51 82.24 101.57 77.48 99.87 75.64
Nov/Dec17 120.99 90.75 119.93 89.85 111.81 83.96 104.49 79.71 103.04 78.04
Jan18 117.06 87.80 115.81 86.77 108.09 81.17 100.79 76.88 102.88 77.92
Mar18 113.86 85.40 112.81 84.52 105.29 79.07 99.30 75.75 102.08 77.32
May18 113.35 85.02 111.78 83.75 104.84 78.73 98.48 75.12 103.02 78.03

[farmaholic]

Local Terminal has basis shrinking and futures dropping at the same time! There's need but the basis adjustments are far from making up the drop in futures.

[danny W1M]

I wasn't talking basis, I was talking crush margins.

[farmaholic]

Both links don't "simply" copy and paste into browsers with results.

COPA Weekly: As of March 22

Crush 15.2% higher than previous week

Crush Capacity:
This Week...97.4%
Year ago...83.9%
YTD Capacity...90.2%

About 700K tonnes ahead of last year at this time.


AAFC price Quotes for Canola seed as of March17:

Saskatoon Par Region....$486.35
Vancouver Track...........$540.68
$ 54.33(this would be alot more than just the cost of Unit train rail freight to Vancouver)

[farmaholic]

Do fundamentals of Canola alone justify the future market prices?