Canola

[furrowtickler]

Glad we sold some more canola yesterday. Down $5 already this am

[mcfarms]

No that cant be true because according to this letter I have some where around here from the western regional manager of Sats Can they are market neutral.

[SASKFARMER3]

Oh yea they are market neutral all right.

C R A S H !!!!!!!!

[crusher]

We sold some old crop yesterday. Didn't get the top but was profitable. To help load a train we got $11.70. Cargill specialty was $13 ish. A little over 20% old crop left to sell. New crop: it is as cold and wet as I can remember for this time of year in my back yard. I'll need Nov over $500 before I commit to more sales.

[furrowtickler]

Hmmm, canola turning around from early losses .

[Partners]

Does the market listen to stats can reports?

[farmaholic]

Well! ....would you look at that!

[Guest]

like I said ,stats can trash report is a complete waste of time , people are starting to realize , canola up $7 . oh , and there is next to none left in Canada , wonder if that'll matter to speculators with pants around ankles ? lol

[SASKFARMER3]

Yea it is funny the more guys i talk to that are out of canola and now chipping away at wheat and oats and barley.

[farmaholic]

Canola up for now. Let's see what this week brings. Spring harvest slow and what quality. Still nearby inverse til Jan18.

New week predictions?

Is what's left in tightly locked bins? $igns of demand. Call for immediate delivery, narrowing basis, rising futures.

Where's your target price? Signed up under open ended contract? Or a uncommitted "moving" target?

[Partners]

Goofy stuff..nearby prices have premium..yet Viterra is 1 month behind on deliverys..
Trains are hit and miss.no delivery this week..then train drops off cars on Friday with no warning..what a great system.

[farmaholic]

In some cases maybe they want to buy now, or pay more later, and make empty promises of specific delivery periods. Nothing like being bought and not taking delivery....no one want to be short when it's needed. A cushion to fall back on. A prudent reserve to draw on if need be. Also, do you think GrainCos are always 100% hedged, buy on speculation?

[farming101]

On average the spring clean up of canola is not going well. If buyers were hoping for some of it to make the grade those hopes haven't been realized yet to any great degree.

Next chart target for me is 531 July. Could be a pause/pullback in that area. Should mean $12 in a few areas.
December 6/16 high of 545.20N is the target which should bring out widespread $12 bids.
If prices continue to rise this week I would not be surprised to see basis widen. It's the buyers way of sharing the increase in price with you
Rally damage is down at 506N but this level will rise as the week progresses.

Some has basis locked in and must go. A fraction of the rest will likely be sold around 11.75 delivered if that appears (price order?)as we whittle it down to gambling stocks

[farmaholic]

I have a gambling problem! Gamblers Anonymous wants to use me as their poster boy.

101(don't take this personally, your opinion is valued by me)...what drives me ****ing nuts are the numbers you quote based on "chart analysis". Seems to neglect the fundamentals.(?) Why should chart based trading trump fundamentals? Or are they actually more related than I think? Did you have puts that paid during the last down turn in futures prices. You talked about a basis contract.....I hate making commitments to one Co when I have more than one viable option on my doorstep. I firmly believe they don't have to effectively use the futures or spot bid aggressively if they have a pile of grain they know damn well has to come up the driveway by a certain date!

I'm all ears.....

[farming101]

Chart based pricing is important because that is what speculators watch. Not the whole market for sure but significant.
July puts were flying high for a while but are kaput now. Did not participate. Looking back should have.
Mostly do ddc or price orders well above market. Basis or futures only has a place in the toolbox at certain times.
As far as a dislike for being committed to delivering to one buyer, well maybe if a guy gets that feeling he should keep looking. We send the odd load here and there to test out other buyers but keep the crush plant on speed dial. They have been great ever since they opened.