Stats Canada Seeding Intentions vs Farmers!

[SASKFARMER3]

Well today is the day that stats canada comes out with seeding intentions. This phone interview was done way back in March so is it relevant or just shit and Giggles.

Here is one farmers seeding intentions and i think its a year of Plan A Plan B and Well Plan C.

Canola will be 4500 acres
Peas will be 650 acres
Wheat will be 4000 acres
Barley will be 350

Stats canada my guess will be

Canola will be 20.8
Wheat will be 20.1
Barley and oats will be 7.3
Soy a record at 7

Out of the above wheat way down way way down.
Canola up do to cash crunch in rural canada. Yea its real.
Barley steady with oats way up.
Didn't do pea and lentil but peas steady to up and lentils down a bit.

What are others guessing.

[SASKFARMER3]

So its just out.

One right on.

Canola way way way up at 22.4 acres.

Wheat 23.2

Soy at 7 got that one

Barley and oats they say 5.9 i say way higher.



So in reality farmers are telling the truth with the soy. It will be every where from Touching the USA border to Past PA.

Wheat farmers are lying and its acres are the fun one.

Canola is a bit high due to rotations but hey why not kill a crop by planting it snow canola snow canola snow.

Oats is way out to lunch and will be up huge not down as this report says. The extra acres in Wheat aren't going to be in wheat but really Oats.

The Barley is the swing crop if its feed you have a money loser if its malt your making some coin.

Time will tell but again this was march and were almost in May.

Ah stats can a computer run program and phone calls last week could create this in a mater of hours.

Get with the 21 st century because farmers are already better computer equipped than you.

[farming101]

I think wheat will be down as you say for this report but actual seeded acres will come in higher after seeding. Just a hunch
If a lot of guys try a field of soybeans acres will be way up

[farming101]

Maybe this is an indicator of a huge list of farm auctions for next year. Everyone knows the last year you farm it's canola wall to wall. Just joking....well maybe not

[furrowtickler]

I would think those numbers will be close . Soy ? Not sure there was enough seed for that number .
Cash crunch ...... well , 50% of the cash crunch is very self inflicted. $120 - $140 cash rent , $700,000 air drills , $700,000 tractors and on and on .
The other 50% is just not fun with crop in the field and poor crops from last years mess.
The weather will cause more grief yet in the next two weeks.
Hope it turns around for all with crop out.
The canola sample I seen looked like the crap from around the edge of flat bottom bins in July .... not good.

[farmaholic]

Canola snow canola snow canola snow...stop the madness.....stop the farm consolidation....stop the merry-go-round! I'm getting off!

[bgmb]

I don't think there has ever been an such a vast area of Western Canada one 2 inch rain away from major seeding issues due to excess moisture. A million ac of crop out much laying under some snow still. probably another few million ac with so many ruts it cant be seeded till the ruts are dealt with. We are behind the 8 ball big time. The later seeding gets the less wheat and more barley and oats will go in.

[Braveheart]

Soy up for sure. Canola up likely. Wheat down. Oats way up. Fallow down. Seeded acres higher than even exist.

Why not rename the day Black Friday?

The truth is, in this area we're a 2" rain away from 80% unseeded fields.

[SASKFARMER3]

The three times we had Canola out it was total shit you burn, Shit that was saleable and not bad shit.

Just saying. Standing Liberty direct cut maybe better. Rest shelled real bad.

Most are one wet snow dump away from WTF Mode.

Huge acres to harvest that have to be reseeded late. Lots can go on in the next 40 to 50 days.

Next week looks real ugly and its starting today, a few days ago we were getting Friday and Saturday and it was hitting Sunday.

[Hamloc]

If you look at potential prices is anyone surprised? All of our costs are pushing farmers to a wheat- canola rotation. I finally had enough of the malt barley game and I grow a little bit of yellow peas, usually close to my most profitable crop, but I don't intend to increase the acres. If that much canola is planted prices will definitely decrease. I am glad I still have the cows.

[crusher]

Survey is a little dated. With all this moisture and crop out, I'm pretty sure summerfallow/unseeded acres will be up

[Guest]

I think wheat will be down as you say for this report but actual seeded acres will come in higher after seeding. Just a hunch
If a lot of guys try a field of soybeans acres will be way up

Everyone i talk to is growing wheat again. Us wheat farmers have been pretty lonely around here last few years. Actual(not stats can trash report) wheat acres will be way way up

[farming101]

Wheat-better hope for better quality than last year because competing against world stocks of run of the mill quality wheat will not be a moneymaker

[Kinger]

Only opportunity with wheat will be in basis. Current world wide stocks are record highs and the US is sitting on over 50% of last years crop in the commercial elevator system never mind how much is in the farmers bins. Graincos still make most of there $ on red spring so we could see them start to pay more for it if there is less out there. I wouldn't bet much on futures though unless we see a Minneapolis vs KC/CH spread widen.

But what the hell do I knows it's not even May yet.

[ajl]

Central and northern Alberta will have abandoned spring thrash and unseeded acres this year. Probably close to a million acres of intended seeding will not make it and some of the wheat gets switched to barley. Stats Can is always wrong. Time to shut the joint down.