Buyers going off July canola futures instead of May

[errolanderson]

Grain companies always roll their contracts out of the nearby month well ahead. Liquidity of the near term declines and doesn't fairly reflect the true cash price. This goes for all commodities. A squeeze in the nearby is caused by a drop in open interest causing a price distortion. Grain companies roll forward to avoid this distortion which could be either sharply up or sharply down.

May not have explained this without confusing some, but standard business procedure. Hope this helps.

[farmaholic]

"Beware if the price skyrockets the basis will take away some of that price appreciation
I've seen it too many times."

Couldn't agree more--it is definitely a possibility.

But is it any different than the contracting company not being as aggressive with bidding on canola knowing "X" number of tonnes are going to come up the driveway regardless? In my simple mind probably not but if everyone signed basis or futures first would there be a need for a futures market. They know it's coming...sit back and wait. In my opinion we are using their tools to market our canola, if they are used---at that point do they assume any risk anymore?

[willy16]

I have got to the point where the only basis I will sign is zero or positive; so you can imagine how many that is. I would rather take the price and know what I have than put control back in to the hands of the merchant. There is no loyalty, you have to be as ruthless as they and keep the money in your pocket. Speaking of special basis prices, that is also assuming you are either on their call list or at the elevator that day to find out.

[blackpowder]

What's a lineup?

[farming101]

The idea that somehow farmers are in control of pricing if they hold back from selling has been kicked around forever. I don't subscribe to it.
It's suggested that last year 18.424 million tonnes of canola was produced in Canada. That's 812,359,483 bushels. I would think that every one of those bushels was grown by a farmer who would like to turn it into money this year. So every week on average 15,622,298 bushels are going to come up the elevator driveways. There is absolutely no where else it is going to go. When this is realized it becomes a lot easier to see that it is best to figure out how to keep the grain flowing off the farm and bringing in the cash to finance next year and hopefully provide for a few of the finer things in life. To me that's what it is all about.

[farmaholic]

Well that settles it 101....there are only two ways of doing things, the 101 way and the wrong way....lol ;-), please don't take that horseshit seriously. Maybe if I had a better handle on things my strategies would vary or change.

Lots of variables between operations that dictate opinions and strategies. My problem is I want to price in an unrealistic top percentile of the market, which is also never known. Pricing based on yield is sometimes futile. ...markets don't care about your profitability when they don't provide a price you can be profitable. Yet they think you can accept less when there was an stellar personal yeild...."but your still profitable at $50/tonne less"...you don't "need" more. So you want a dollar over COP or $100? Does it matter the strategy used to get as much of that hundred as possible? As long as you get it I don't care the method employed.

The sky is not the limit
Low hanging fruit
In tight hands
Lock the bin doors
Feed the market and grow it or starve it and kill it
Take a cookie
Sell into a rising market
Greed has taught me more than one lesson in marketing
Catching a falling knife
If I don't sell, someone else will

All part of the discussion...

[farming101]

Sometimes stating a view can give the impression that all other views are wrong. Not my intention
Market on...

[farmaholic]

Thank you for your perspective and everyone else's on the matter. Keep posting everyone.