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    Home Capital Group

    Did you hear it? That's the pop in the bubble. Can we see a doubling in interest rates one morning?

    #2
    Oh come on I watched tv and
    Are banks are solid
    It's a different culture
    Toronto and Vancouver are just different
    Realacrook agents says there is lots of demand
    This time it's different and on and on

    IMO this is the beginning of bubble popping. Way to many people have the majority of their net worth tied up a fixture that keeps the rain off them. Like it or not that's all a house does. Ones primary Residence is not productive asset and should be valued accordingly.

    I'm hearing way to many stories right now about people in NDP land buying foreclosed homes that the previous owner had 2, 3 and 4 mortgages on.

    The next 12 months will tell the tale and wait if oil rolls over look the hell out

    Iceman Short it Out

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      #3
      One ping only

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        #4
        The average incomes don't justify the house prices in a lot of cities.

        Due for a correction.

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          #5
          Price of grain does not justify the price of land, equipment, and repairs. On and on.

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            #6
            Yea they needed a 2 Billion Line of Credit to help out.

            Oh and Canada Pension fund is leaving land purchases and will begin to sell off land. Reason isn't that rent is producing a huge win fall or that they bought at the top and now need to liquidate.

            No they are going to get out because us farmers were pissed at them entering.

            Final stage in the boom cycle is upon us. Big hitters like pension funds leave.

            Didn't i tell the tale a few years back how all these booms end up.

            Next is beginning of increasing interest rates.

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              #7
              What will be the value of the correction? 10 or 20%?

              Example, if I get to buy that dirt beside me, and $2000/ac land corrects 10-20% that's $200-$400ac! The latter being more than I ever paid for anything else I bought........sobering thought.

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                #8
                30% some where reset so 400000 dollar quarter will drop to 280000. Then sit their till farmers lick their wounds and start climbing again. Or a 160000 quarter will go down to 112000.

                Im just saying look at history each time since we started to plow the ground their is a pull back then higher it goes. Were going to be at a pull back by next spring.

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                  #9
                  Farmland> If you're into the investment long term(define long term) it doesn't matter, if you're speculating,,,, the correction could be painful.

                  Housing< everyone needs a house... hardly considered an investment as much as a necessity! Appreciation should be considered a bonus but don't expect it.... and then there's maintenance and the constant need to renovate by some people to stay with the current "fads".

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                    #10
                    Ill be the first to Admit my home in Regina is not worth what the real-estate guys and gals say it is. But every one needs a home.

                    Look at Vegas or Phoenix or where ever when they had the drop. 499 home became 189 real fast and when your the only neighbour left on the block it gets ugly. But the lady who came from edmonton a few years back and bought a bunch of 100 thousand dollar home then sold at the peak did very well.

                    Yes if you speculated in farm land which i never really got We have guys who are still purchasing in area at this price. I can't figure it out the rent they receive is just enough to cover taxes and small return. Our investments last year were a way more than this on same dollar spent. Must have poor advisors on investment or just attended to many meeting about getting rich buying land.

                    still time will tell but a cycle is a cycle. It really doesn't matter if you are staying in the game because even one guy who bought at the peak in the 80s is still farming today. Really didn't do any thing land wise for 25 years but he still is farming all the others are gone.

                    speculators come and go.

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                      #11
                      Pullback or not farma will always regret not buying that close parcel. If you can afford it do it. When do you think it will be available again? How old will you be when its a 'bargain'? Close enough to haul grain to yard? What will your avg ac price be whole farm if you dont buy it. What is your $/ac machinery costs if you do? How much will apprentice need in 20 years?
                      With the greatest of respect. Pull your head out of your ...

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                        #12
                        Housing. As our cities (where all the people are) get ever bigger and mature. Few will own their home. Fact of life every where else.

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                          #13
                          BP... you are absolutely right regarding the dirt beside me. The closest corner of the half section is half a mile away from the main yard... lol! With my head up my ass all the time you know why I have such a shitty attitude!

                          I enjoy everyone's perspective and comments! I can handle criticism.

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                            #14
                            SF3 has been spot on with this whole CPP land deal. It's a bunch of bull crap that they are leaving because the neighbors don't like them. They can get a decent return on capital right now and the rents are probably less than they were expecting. So time to exit.

                            Farma, sometimes we don't get to decide at which point in the cycle assets come up forsale. If it doesn't put the whole package at risk it will probably be fine and you will never regret it. Although you want to make sure that JR will be able to handle all of it when your gone.

                            Iceman Out

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                              #15
                              Absolutely Ice. They are leaving because they think prices are likely to head lower not higher. Higher interest rates and land taxes will see to that unless B of C does US style quantitative easing.

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