wheat here in oz pricing

[malleefarmer]

should be on below thread but our bog standard 10 to 11.5% protein apw wheat has gone from 250 Friday to 276 today. Plus 280 tomorrow if it happens will be a new seasons sell for me 5 to 10% of expected production.

Flame away guys and trolls tell how silly I am ive got a tough hide

A lot of other commodities are low any correlation eg oil last time wheat went through the roof oil hit 150 per barrel.

times like this you wish cotton could voice his opinion

[farming101]

Is Oz going to make 25MMT this year?
You'll have some carryover to work through no?
Portland bids were 5.62-5.82 US yesterday for HRW 11.5 Sept delivery
North Dakota bids at one elevator for HRW 3.67 US. Worse in Canada.

Portland bids for DNS 14% 7.49-7.89 US Sept del
North Dakota elevator 5.70 US. Canada #1 14 HRS 7.70 CAD should be attainable

Good price offers there Mallee

I think MWU might take a breather at around 6.64. If not 7.25 next resistance.
Chicago Sept could be hitting resistance too at about 4.91

[malleefarmer]

Well did 225 tonne at $275 with float dec 2017 delivery.
A start my first forward sale of the year.
Three buyers on same price two with fixed one with float took floating option incase protein premiums blow come our harvest in dec

[farmaholic]

"Flame away guys and trolls tell how silly I am ive got a tough hide"......

No need to criticize your marketing choices or strategy (is there Wakopa), if your satisfied with the choice the only person it matters to is you.

I dumped all my old crop wheat last December for about $6.75, and didn't leave any to play with. That was a decent price until this latest weather related price rally. Who knew who knows who cares....won't dwell on it and the focus changes to new crop when I know what's in the bin. It's not a matter of being afraid of selling a few bu/ac of production as it is the unknown quality issue. I realize even the price discounts for growing off contract spec could be less than the spot price in the fall market value leaving me with less money in the end, so why wouldn't I do it? But in reality, grabbing an "unknown premium"(because it may actually not be by the time the 2017/18 stocks and quality are known and my entire crop is priced) on afew bushels likely won't make a big difference in the end result anyway.....but nothing wrong with locking some in if you want.

[farmaholic]

"Locking in a profit":

How can you say any price is profitable at this stage of the game....you may have a very good handle on your inputs per acre(give or take for variables and incidentals). Your unit cost will.be dramatically different if you produce 30 bu/ac or 50. Sad part is the market doesn't care if you had a flop and need a higher price than everyone else who was able to sell at a profit based on production and what the market is willing to pay. Your profitability is your problem not theirs.

Best of luck In 17/18 everyone, take care.

[bucket]

If they would lock in the discounts and premiums on forward sales I could live with the decisions....the unknowns will always be grade and delivery ....

If it's priced for September delivery ....but delivered in December. ...there is no value.

[farmaholic]

If they would lock in the discounts and premiums on forward sales I could live with the decisions....the unknowns will always be grade and delivery ....

If it's priced for September delivery ....but delivered in December. ...there is no value.

Why take delivery of contracted $7.50 wheat when there is alot of "low hanging fruit" at the time for less? They know the $7.50 stuff is coming up the driveway when they say you can "bring it"!

[SASKFARMER3]

But if this is a frost year and were almost due for one as it has been 13 years since the last ugly one.

[malleefarmer]

we can lock in premiums for protein but I chose to leave it as a floating contract

[malleefarmer]

"quote While there is scepticism about whether world wheat futures will hold at current levels due to large stockpiles of grain, the good news for growers is that the gains are unlikely to evaporate entirely.
Malcolm Bartholomaeus, Callum Downs, said historically it was rare for markets to give up gains made at this late stage of the northern hemisphere season."

[MBgrower]

But if this is a frost year and were almost due for one as it has been 13 years since the last ugly one.

I tend to agree, think we will have a late august frost this year, havent had one here for 13 years. Big corn growers could be in for a real hurt. Soybeans need frost free until sept 15.

[the big wheel]

Canola needs no frost for sept 10 to 15 for 40% of acres. Just sayin. Hahahaha