November Canola Facing Resistance

[SASKFARMER3]

Thursdays low in the November canola contract of $472.40/metric ton, now the contract of choice for many buyers in calculating prairie prices, takes us back to a level seen four times in the past 11 months.
In July and August of 2016, the contract reached lows of $472.20 and $472.10/t respectively. These lows were tested once again when the March 2017 low reached $473/t and the April low reached $471.80/t.
There are reasons for concern.

Yea the market always knows. FM it does. The market knows jack shit.

Stats canada tells the market shit.

Prov gov tell the market all is great lets sing kumbiya and close our eyes.

The one farmer with good crop says all is good to every one he sees.

Every one with shitty crops doesn't say a word because we can't have a poor crop.

Here is the truth its a later canola crop that has three stages of growth and the cold morning temps and flooding in other areas and drought don't make a bumper hell this might be a below production year. Wake up its a shit show.

[4GFarms]

Completely agree SF3. We have a few fields that are ok but lots that have anywhere from cotyledon to cabbage. I think its going to be a low production year by the look of some canola. Not pricing anything as this crop is way too far from the bin at this point in the growing season.

[SASKFARMER3]

I agree the idiots can take the crop down to 400 a ton for all i care. Over all the canola crop of 2017 in general is in very poor shape for this time of year throw in a hot spell in two weeks and we have a major issue that they will keep telling every one its all right.

Watch the next bit of bullshit will be last years crop was way bigger than they thought and their is no shortage.


Its all bull shit and its getting real sickening.

[farmaholic]

No old crop left here! $12.00 was enough for me to not risk it going higher and instead see it fall again.

Not too many canola crops in this area would make the cover of a magazine this year.... very few, if any, picture perfect.

[sk_wheatking]

It's been sickening for years and will be sickening forever. There is no market competition! Canola could be 5.00 a bushel and everyone would offer the same price. Guys would sell and complain about it but then grow even more to try and make ends meet. I don't know what the answer is. If there are profits every company is scrambling with increased pricing to eat them up. Even if we had guaranteed floor pricing like I think they have in the states it would be taken away by increases.

[bucket]

From 1.99 a pound to 11.99 a pound for seed and then an extra pass of insecticide ...yup I can see who ate up any extra ....

[ajl]

I agree that this year canola crop will be much smaller than the recent past and this is a good thing. Add in unseeded acres. There are some good canola fields east of Edmonton but not many. The big story here is that China is imposing capital controls meaning that they will devalue the yen again soon to keep the ship from sinking over there. That is why Vancouver housing is going up again. Apparently the Chinese fear there own government more than they fear ours.

[danny W1M]

Land is generally flat, but in every little or large shallow the canola is yellowish and purplish from sitting water from too much rain. Later planted fields have lots of places drown right out. The best most productive areas of the field damaged significantly.

Won't be taking a DDContract any time soon on New crop.

[bucket]

Ajl

Chinese investors will get citizenship pay big money for houses maybe take a capital loss on the sale and live well because the money is safer here than in China.

It's a good deal ...for the Chinese immigrant....if you think about it....then add in deals like brightenview it's even better because the government is funding that shitshow also....

[farming101]

Old crop was there. One million tonnes delivered the last three weeks. I didn't think we'd get a post seeding wave of deliveries this year. Still thinking the last few weeks of the crop year will see deliveries slow right down.

[Guest]

This is what the opposite of drought looks like , for those of you that havent experienced it
This is what almost every field looks like north ,northeast and northwest of carrot river . Around tobin lake the land looks like it has been deserted . Lots of land hasnt been touched in 2-3 yrs . West of nipawin sounds like its the same all the way to prince albert

[bucket]

101

Given that seeding went fairly well ...logic would suggest that as farmers sat on the tractor and heard good prices along with reasonable weather forecasts they decided to empty bins ....seeding wraps up ahead of schedule creates that delivery. ...I think you are right ....it dries up from here on in.....even if bids go higher....it's no longer available....

I always tell elevators they have to go higher for a short period if you want to find the hoarders....