November Canola Facing Resistance

[Guest]

This is a standing crop of canola that hasnt been touched. But im pretty sure stats can will have it included in their ending stocks . If any of you guys arent feeling real happy with your crops just take a drive through that country. It sure made our crops look better . Sure feel sorry for those guys out there and theyre damn good farmers . And their mla doesnt even know that its happening

[Guest]

[ATTACH]1580[/ATTACH]

Thursdays low in the November canola contract of $472.40/metric ton, now the contract of choice for many buyers in calculating prairie prices, takes us back to a level seen four times in the past 11 months.
In July and August of 2016, the contract reached lows of $472.20 and $472.10/t respectively. These lows were tested once again when the March 2017 low reached $473/t and the April low reached $471.80/t.
There are reasons for concern.

Yea the market always knows. FM it does. The market knows jack shit.

Stats canada tells the market shit.

Prov gov tell the market all is great lets sing kumbiya and close our eyes.

The one farmer with good crop says all is good to every one he sees.

Every one with shitty crops doesn't say a word because we can't have a poor crop.

Here is the truth its a later canola crop that has three stages of growth and the cold morning temps and flooding in other areas and drought don't make a bumper hell this might be a below production year. Wake up its a shit show.

market proved it knows jack shit with hrsw again . 2 year burdensome supply somehow miraculously disappeared in 2 months

[Guest]

FWIW , I don't think there isn't a perfect canola crop in the whole northeast , doesn't matter if it was seeded with a plow or an $800k bg state of the art drill .and I'm sitting here watching it rain , and listening to the furnace run in the house. yea it's all good

[errolanderson]

Canola fallout is due to weakening global economic conditions . . . .

[sumdumguy]

Canola in this area needs to do a lot of catching up to make an average crop. There are many Canola fields around Regina that should be plowed down. I can't speak for the entire province but I have seen fields all around and east and west that you can easily see a gopher run. How are the mustard crops in Agriville Country?

[Guest]

Canola fallout is due to weakening global economic conditions . . . .

Youre probably right or could be the old tactic of dropping it hard to suck some more out ? Not really much of a fallout tho, just sold some here yesterday for $11.58

[GDR]

Canola fallout is due to weakening global economic conditions . . . .

I believe you, but i don't understand why. Just because economic conditions are deteriorating doesn't mean that people are gonna stop eating. Are they buying other cheaper alternatives? Or not buying at all? I don't get the demand side of the supply demand equation. On an individual basis lots would make food a lower priority than the latest technology, trendy cloths etc. But on a large world scale the population has to eat or chaos ensues.

[macdon02]

[ajl]

I believe you, but i don't understand why. Just because economic conditions are deteriorating doesn't mean that people are gonna stop eating. Are they buying other cheaper alternatives? Or not buying at all? I don't get the demand side of the supply demand equation. On an individual basis lots would make food a lower priority than the latest technology, trendy cloths etc. But on a large world scale the population has to eat or chaos ensues.

As the economy deteriorates, people eats less, waste less, and alternative come back on the menu. Gardening, foraging and in some places boiled rat is back on the menu. Another thing that happens is those giant speculative stockpiles in China start getting used or resold. Much of the recent commodities boom was related to buying for the purposes of speculation. Chinese businessmen? would buy commodities, wait for government to devalue yen two or three times and voila instant capital gain.

[MBgrower]

I dont think the mult-staged canola will yield well. One third emerged early and is now bolting, the rest has not cabbaged yet, i would suspect the more advanced plants will act as a weed, and out compete the remaining two thirds of plants.