I got the Call yesterday! Sell your wheat before it drops!

[SASKFARMER3]

I just love getting the call from grain companies to sell sell sell. Yea their market guru thinks we peaked and were on way for a huge fall.

Ah i read.

Ah i have contacts in different countries.

Ah i have wheat thats not as good as last few years.

Ah its late.

Ah its thinner.

ah headed dried out shit in SD will not come back and give a huge crop.

All the shit wheat in the world is low protein so no switching.

Ah it goes on and on. France is dry etc etc.

So sell sell sell.

Wheat is up .07 again this morning.

Have we hit a top.

No i don't think so.

Canada will have way less acres wheat tomorrow in the stats canada report.

So no i want the 8 thats where it should be with the dollar difference any way.

So no not selling yet.

[farmaholic]

Don't you just love it when the protein premium tops out at 15% and you have higher! You mean to say the protein above 15% doesnt actually contribute to increasing the protein content when blending with low px stuff? There may years of adequate stocks of Px in Western Canada but it could and probably is used to blend up other countries poorer levels.

[farmaholic]

Will the inverse for new crop on the Minni change going forward?

ICE canola has carry in new crop.

[danny W1M]

Where's the inverse? On MGE Sept has been higher than July for sometime?

Here,,,they've been pricing old crop off Sept for weeks already, finally a break going our way.

[farmaholic]

Where's the inverse? On MGE Sept has been higher than July for sometime?

Here,,,they've been pricing old crop off Sept for weeks already, finally a break going our way.

Danny, I mentioned new crop, I don't consider the July month new crop (in my mind anyway). The months going forward from Sept on...

Not a tinfoil hat question just wondering if there will be carry in the wheat market going forward. Once supplies are better known or supplies secured, it could turn...no?


Edit: I suppose I wasn't real clear with my comment. I understand what you're saying.

[foragefarmer]

When was the last time Minny wheat was this high? It's been slowly climbing for over three weeks now, when it starts to go down it won't take that long for it fall back to the level where it started it's climb. Couple of limit down days and there go! Once it starts to drop farmers will be lining up to sign contracts which will help the fall. Just my thoughts nothing more.

Works the very same way gas prices but in reverse,three weeks to go down .10 cents a litre and one day to go up .10 cents a litre.


Good luck to all on this one!!

[AC man]

Farma,sounds like they want to steal some grain before the price really does go up. This crop is by no means a sure thing! I asked about hauling some flax Monday,but the Pioneer has pulled bids until probably Nov. The price of flax was only 10.25 so would not let them steal it for that. The grain companies only look after themselves always have and airways will.

[danny W1M]

SF3, you know the saying, and I'm sure you've seen it over the years. " Buy the rumor, sell the news ! "

Sometimes prices do drop when the news is somewhat bullish. Fundamentals will bring the price back, but in the mean time the buyers get a break to reposition themselves.

[the big wheel]

There will be no number 1 wheat this year at least not bought that way.

[danny W1M]

farmaholic, we're still holding old crop hear so have only been following July and Sept.

I see where your were coming from re Sept, Dec and Mar.

Holding off pricing New crop, taking a basis might be a good idea though. Crop is late here though, and have concerns about early fall frost. No act of God on their DDC's.

[farmaholic]

There will be no number 1 wheat this year at least not bought that way.

FFS bigwheel, don't you know by now that grade doesn't matter.... its the price that matters. I wonder if grade matters to the end user. Enter durum....

Waiting for the day wheat is priced #2 or better.... like peas. No premium for premium product!

[farmaholic]

farmaholic, we're still holding old crop hear so have only been following July and Sept.

I see where your were coming from re Sept, Dec and Mar.

Holding off pricing New crop, taking a basis might be a good idea though. Crop is late here though, and have concerns about early fall frost. No act of God on their DDC's.

Your decision to hold is paying big dividends.... good for you! But if I were holding I would be as nervous as a "long" tail cat in a room full of rocking chairs! LOL

[the big wheel]

Well I should clarify then.
There will be no number 1 and re discount will be horrendous for anything less. I can see the fuzz across the land as I write this. Hahahaha

[wmoebis]

FFS bigwheel, don't you know by now that grade doesn't matter.... its the price that matters. I wonder if grade matters to the end user. Enter durum....

Waiting for the day wheat is priced #2 or better.... like peas. No premium for premium product!

Yes grade matters for what end user will pay as far as FM and damage goes, but what is also very important is specs like Falling number and prot level. Grades can go out the window but end users will still deduct $ for damage and FM just like the USA.

All grades are is a guarantee that there is max/min FM and damage in each lot of grain. Just like kids going to grade school doesn't matter if you have 90% mark or 50% you still move on but less than 50% you fail.

[farmaholic]

Well over 75% headed. No signs of flowers yet but won't be long....**** the fusarium "suppression" fungicide...Mother Nature is doing it for "free" this year.