AAFC is forecasting a 6.339 million tonne canola crop this year. That is working out to 24 bushels/acre. Has any one heard any other production numbers for canola put forward by the grain companies?
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I'm going to the Sparks Outlook Conference in Calgary Thursday & Friday next week - which, by the way, should be overflowing with farmers but never is. It'll be interesting to hear what they say about all the Canadian crops.
More info on Sparks Calgary conference at http://www.sparksco.com/Canadian_Conf_2003.htm .
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Yes, shamrock, I absolutely agree with your comment that there is little or no advertising promoting this conference.
Send your displeasure about the lack of promotion to Sparks. Their web site is www.sparksco.com .
I think their Winnipeg staff keep an eye on this forum. Start a new thread on that subject and see if they respond.
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Was at a canola industry meeting this past week in Edmonton and heard yields all over the map from very good to very bad. 24 bushels/acre is at the low end of the last 5 years (as a note of surprise, the 2002 yield was 26 bu/acre with the caveat that 25 % of last years crop was written off/used for animal feed). The next survey will be released first week December.
My guess is the production will stay at about 6.3 to 6.4 MMT. Everybody likes to criticize Statistics Canada estimates but they are the best/most disciplined process.
Production doesn't matter to much to me now but instead the issue will be the demand side. Improved domestic crush plus Chinese/Mexican sales are signs of better things ahead. The threats are a higher loonie and potential for a 100 MMT south American soybean crop.
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