Heat Warning is Issued. Markets say its all good nothing to see here, move along.

[SASKFARMER3]

Drought may be overtaking parts of Alberta and Saskatchewan, but so far at least, Manitoba is avoiding the worst of the dry weather, says a story from Syngenta.
While dry pockets do exist in the province’s southwest, nobody is yet raising alarms.
“We haven’t seen negative effects because of dry weather. We just know that crops could benefit from rain,” said Anne Kirk, of Manitoba Agriculture.
“WE’RE NOT SEEING DAMAGE AS OF YET AND we’re not sure when conditions might become a problemTopsoil moisture conditions continued to deteriorate across Saskatchewan this past week, as mostly dry conditions persisted, according to the latest provincial crop report, says a story from Syngenta.
Across the province, topsoil moisture on cropland was rated as 5% surplus, 49% adequate, 37% short and 9% very short as of Monday. That compares to a week earlier, when crop was rated 6% surplus, 61% adequate, 28% short and 5% very short.
The majority of the province received very little rain this past week, ranging from negligible amounts in most areas to 78 mm in the Nipawin area.
OVERALL, CROPS ARE AT THEIR NORMAL STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT for this time of year. However, the report noted there are some crops that are behind due to moisture issues.
Dry conditions in southern Saskatchewan are cause for vigilance, BUT RAIN COULD STILL PULL OUT A HEALTHY HARVEST, according to Patrick Moolek. The area of concern lies within a triangle shape, with the northern tip at Saskatoon, one arm stretching southeast to Weyburn, Estevan and the U.S. border, and the other stretching southwest to Swift Current, Maple Creek and the U.S. border

Wheat futures fell, shrugging off signs of further deterioration in already stressed crops, on a round of profit-taking following a rally to multi-year highs, traders said. Sept. closes: Minn. dropped 50 3/4 to end at $7.69. Chi. fell 21 to $5.39 and KC lost 23 cents to $5.46 1/2.

Well the next 10 days are make or break for Alberta Saskatchewan and Manitoba. 35 temps and wind don't make for excellent grain growing. Yes a rain today or last week would of helped most to get through this but basically Wind and heat don't make plants happy.

Time will tell if I'm wrong but this weather pattern has been in place since mid winter. Nothing has changed storms go up over and down. No montana lows because its dry dry dry down their.

Its sad to see but really welcome to the 80s this is what we lived and farmed for years.

[SASKFARMER3]

Glass half full or half empty or just a realist.

Im just saying yes if every one got a rain right now it would be a billion dollar rain. Thats not happening any time soon so glass half full is not a issue.

Glass half empty crowd were burning up and its all over and done. Its not a issue either since those with excellent ground moisture should make it through this but yes some areas of fields that are lighter or gravel ridge of sand ridge or breaking of worked last fall could have issues with no rain.

Realist whats going to happen will happen and their is nothing we can do about it but sit and watch. Its a different year and mother nature is in total control. To bad the markets can't see this.

have a great weekend, putting disease control on hold something about spending some $200000 plus on this crop just doesn't seem right.

[sk_wheatking]

Glass half full or half empty or just a realist.

Im just saying yes if every one got a rain right now it would be a billion dollar rain. Thats not happening any time soon so glass half full is not a issue.

Glass half empty crowd were burning up and its all over and done. Its not a issue either since those with excellent ground moisture should make it through this but yes some areas of fields that are lighter or gravel ridge of sand ridge or breaking of worked last fall could have issues with no rain.

Realist whats going to happen will happen and their is nothing we can do about it but sit and watch. Its a different year and mother nature is in total control. To bad the markets can't see this.

have a great weekend, putting disease control on hold something about spending some $200000 plus on this crop just doesn't seem right.

LOL! nobody has responded to you yet and this post looks like your defending yourself ahead of time. Your right, the crops are ****ed. That's just a fact. By the middle of next week look out. Not much "grassfarmer---ing" going to be had. Cattle guys getting ready to start crying too.

[sk_wheatking]

Looks like we're the only early birds this morning sf3

[SASKFARMER3]

LOL defending my self explain.

Im just stating a fact extreme heat and basically min rain does not make grain.

No one replied yet.

I just posted the F$%King thing.

Really some of you guys need to chill a bit.

Fact is heat warning issued for most of alberta and SW sask last night.

2 week forecast is similar.

Things are going to get interesting real soon.

Market won't react as its the same as 2002 and 2004 when it froze. Fields stunk but the experts say wait and see what will be. What a fracking joke it was a total shit show. But the reason is real easy calm the world about the situation so the grain merchants can get all their ducks in a row before the real news comes out.

Maybe I'm wrong but i think most realize I'm right.

[SASKFARMER3]

Yes were early this morning as I'm washing the sprayer off with all the mist from Liberty it looks like I'm using major soap.

[4GFarms]

I have to agree with SF3 about the crops and what might happen in the next week to ten days if no rain comes. The only thing I disagree with is the fact that you post fantastic looking crop pics and if you are concerned I better get my ducks in a row for a RB auction!!! Our crops look ok but with variable land (some sandy) we are in real trouble in a week with no rain. They just put a t-storm risk (60%) for tuesday so we still have hope. The market is in for a real big surprise if this heat continues. Not only yield loss but grade loss(light weight grain). Gonna need some market help for us cause I dont think bin space will be a problem. Hope I am wrong.

[4GFarms]

Oh and I was up early too!!

[SASKFARMER3]

I will be honest most of our crops are doing ok and look actually good but i have farmed long enough in Saskatchewan to know that once a pattern develops all the prayers in world won't change it. Maybe its like skwheatking said I'm preparing for next weeks crop report because the way i see it a nice crop can start going down hill very fast if water becomes a issue. The problem is not sub soil moisture and deep roots the problem is heat and wind that sucks the life out of plants and hopefully at night they can recover. Hopefully.

Some times a thin crop can get through a tough period better than a thick crop. One thing also a good fertility program does help with root growth etc. plants will search for water before they die.

Hopefully Tuesday does give us a boomer but Tuesday is a long way out.

Have a great weekend I'm going fishing first time this year. Cold beer good friends and quiet non farming talk with my city friends.

[vvalk]

Question is who cares about Manitoba in the sense of overall production? Write a story about crops are ok in less then 10% of total prairie production?. Always wondered why so much attention is given to Manitoba when just a small chunk of Saskatchewan would produce more. They can have bumber crops there and it doesn't matter for overall prairie production. Our forecast by Lethbridge despite being 30-35 for the next 14 days is also for 30-50km winds at times. There is lots of sub 20 bus crops of everything coming in this neck of the woods

[farming101]

Above average temps for next two weeks? With little to no rain? Done like dinner if that materializes. All crops below average for a huge area

[SASKFARMER3]

Yes V i agree Manitoba production in the big picture is min compared to sask etc, The heat and wind will be the problem.

[Hamloc]

SF3, in central Alberta our crops look very similar to yours. Our crops look similar to your(sorry no pics). Most canola is bolting or in 10-20% bloom. Wheat is anywhere from flag to fully headed. My one field of peas ranges in height from knee high to 4 feet. I feel fortunate and this heat is going to hurt. My understanding is non-irrigated areas of southern Alberta are very dry. We need rain!!

[danny W1M]

SF3, there are some fields around that have heavy fertilizer programs. Unbelievable number of stools because of the early rain, but are already starting to die off, The ones that survive will have small heads and puny seeds.
Plants have very shallow roots here due to all the earlier rain, heat is hitting faster than they can grow down.
Was over toward east Weyburn area, earlier in the week, quite a few flax fields, but if any of them make more than 10 b/a I'd be very surprised. Canola, half bolting, the other half 2", not even cabbaging yet. Brutal germination there(maybe cutworm too)

[farmaholic]

Your profitability is of little concern to the traders/merchants. If my crops yield in the low twenties and everyone else's are in the forties, the grain markets don't care if the prices paid that turn most everyone else a profit don't turn my farm a profit. ....that's my problem!

Make no mistake....they are fully aware of what's happening. Also remember some of the GrainCos get to choose which "shelf", the Canadian, Australian, American shelf or which ever they will take product from to make a sale. Global market. They are margin traders and if they can...spread takers.

Good luck and hang in there. Some are, or will be in bigger trouble than others....it isn't very pretty here already.