Canadian 2017 production forecast Mid July?

[SASKFARMER3]

Ok so in Canada the early stat canada report showed farmers were going to seed

22.8 mil acres of Canola
22.4 mil acres of Wheat
7.3 mil acres of Soy
4.4 mil acres of Lentils
5.8 mil acres of Barley
3.2 mil acres of Oats

So Now lets guess where the final out come will be here is final numbers for 2016 production in november

Canola 18.4
wheat 31.7
Soy 6.5
Lentils 3.2
Barley 8.8
Oats 3.1

My guess is with another week of hot dry weather and wind the following final numbers

Canola 17.6
Wheat 18.2
Soy 6.5
Lentils 3.6
Barley 6.5
Oats 3.6

So whats every one else guess.

Heat can take a crop that awesome on July first and turn it into shit by august. Oh big one tenth last night. Its the Year of the tenth.

[bucket]

You are saying the average canola crop will average 35bpa?

In this heat?

Last year some elevator companies were writing the crop off with cooler temperatures and higher rainfall......

My guess on canola is well under 15mmt....and lower everyday.

[farming101]

Doubt wheat will be that low.
I dunno on canola. Could be right. Case of backyarditis here right now. Our canola could easily go in the low 20's. Too early to tell.

[SASKFARMER3]

My rational is wheat acres were lower but wheat can take heat better than canola.

My canola number could be a bit high i was thinking 16.2 if the heat continues because lots of new guys haven't seen Pepper canola.

Google it its awesome. Haul in a Semi load thats filled to brim and you get 935 bushels on load but it came out of a 5000 bin.

Lentils love heat.

Yes Also had peas and last night drove home the south way then into city. Ah 8 quarters just outside indian head shutting down. Worst crop that farm has ever had in peas in its life. Later peas not bad yet.

Heat next week will take grain. But the rain in North and Kelvington will give Big yield to traditional area

[Klause]

We're on the fringes... West of here there's canola shutting down flowering... I'm talking 10 miles west of Humboldt. Been blooming less than two weeks. Get to colonsay they had 3/10 of rain all spring.

At home we had a big rain but the frost or the heat something is taking yield. Canola flowering and short. Wheat super thick and heavy but odd light colored patches showing up in fields I think it's burning up there


Sprayed fungicide on barley south of here... Farmer thought disease but hill tops are dropping all leaves low spots really good yet.


Go east towards Watson and wow they have a beautiful crop though there to quill lake

[biglentil]

Lentils are light on blooms and pods im hoping for 20bpa at this point I might be overly optomistic . They need some moisture too. Geeze give us a fk'ing rain already. Been trying to set up a futures account and go long canola. Anyone know of an easy quick way to do that?

[farmaholic]

This is an exercise in counting chickens before they hatch.

It could be as bad or even worse than half of last year's yield here. But last year wasn't normal on our farm either. Grain yields need to be on Prozac here...enough of this bi-polar shit...average/even it out.

[bucket]

Farmaholic....there is no money in it for traders or marketeers with consistent results.....


How do you sell priaxor without drastic events.....last year disease in lentils. ....this year it's too stressed....and guys buy the SOS (snake oil sales).....good for retailers. ....blah blah blah....

Look at Klause... he's getting spray jobs because the crop is burning out .....good for him....

[farming101]

BigLentil, jump through the hoops get it done right and then start your new education program.

[bucket]

There is a whole lot of farmers that don't understand heat....low humidity...and a breeze ....for weeks .....


They will in about 3 weeks maybe less.....and they might start to understand that a 500000 sprayer is not a go-cart.....every pass costs a minimum 20 bucks per acre....

[farmaholic]

BigLentil, jump through the hoops get it done right and then start your new education program.

I hope the new education doesn't cost more than it's worth. Happy trading...

[farming101]

SF3 wheat again. That works out to a sub 30 bpa yield for all wheat types across Canada. Too low I think.

[Rareearth]

Lentils love heat, come on Sask.

Delete

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I have to delete or modify my comments, to stay civil here.

When field crops are flowering they all thrive on light winds, moderate humidity, adequate soil moisture, sunny - moderate temps, etc

Lentils love sunny, warm weather, as do all crops. They are most susceptible to yield loss ( as with all crops) when:
- excessive dryness drys flowers prior to proper pollination
- lack of soil moisture results in very small ( dockage) seeds in pods
- single seed pods vs doubles
- small seeds, vs large and plump
- short crop - unable to harvest

As with, barley, canola, durum, peas etc

I have had many awesome lentil crops over my 30 years experience, same as we have now. I have experienced average yields at best more years than not due to lack of moisture during poding and pod fill. This will be another one of those years😕 As with all the other field crops we grow they need moisture during seed set, and filling.

Most areas are out of moisture ( lentils shallow rooted!) there will be many excuses, and non admission, to explain poor results. This winter will be interestin, when the real extent of crop damage is realized, slow farmer selling and exporters short, can't buy product.

Lentils like early warmth, moisture, and heat during vegetative, as all crops do. We are now past this stage.

[fjlip]

Klause, Any rain last night? Radar showed from Humboldt through Wadena-Elfros, went to Yorkton. We got a wind and thunder.

[Klause]

Nope nothing at all. Nice calm night Darcy and I were out cutting hay till 1130 and we're up till 1 sunny at 5 am again.