Some Rain but Canola Concerns Remain

[SASKFARMER3]

Well its a nice news article but the area that received rain wasn't that big and were second week going into third before any rain hit damage is done.

Still looking skyward out here and thats a crack from a pea field. Maybe 10 days left.Some Prairie areas may have gotten rain over the past week or so, but not enough to completely ease trader concern about this year’s canola crop.
“Some areas got really good rain, some areas got a trace, and other places got missed more or less altogether,” said Jon Driedger, senior market analyst at FarmLink Marketing in Winnipeg.
As shown on the map below, portions of Western Canada did receive decent amounts of rain over the past week, but some of the most critically dry areas of central Saskatchewan remained mostly dry.
Meanwhile, canola crop condition ratings - although still not terrible - have slipped in both Saskatchewan and Alberta. The Saskatchewan crop was pegged at 57% good to excellent as of July 10, down 3 points from two weeks earlier, while the Alberta crop was rated about 68% good to excellent as of July 11, a 5-point drop from the previous week.
Regardless of the most recent rain, Driedger said the dryness had already taken its toll in some areas.
“I think in terms of a bin-busting yield, I think that’s off the table.”
The canola market is especially sensitive to any potential production losses, he said, as old-crop supplies were already tight going into the growing season.
While the supply fundamentals remain somewhat supportive, Driedger said weather is likely to rule how the market moves, which could add an element of unpredictability into trade.
“We’re in a critical window with this canola, and so the next couple weeks with the weather and the forecast, is really going to be important.”
Near-term forecasts suggest scattered but mostly light showers across the Prairies this week, with some cooler temperatures also expected. Although that will help to limit stress on crops for now, hotter and drier weather is expected to return during the last week of July.

Crop production total getting closer to the 14.7 mt not my initial guess of 16.9.

Dropping every day. Funny the area to the north of me that got the 1.2 inch a week ago had funny yellow spots on sunday as i drove back from the lake.

[SASKFARMER3]

US Crop Conditions Slip Again
The US corn crop was rated at 64% good/excellent as of Sunday, down 1 point on week and matching trade expectations, reported the USDA. 40% of the crop was silking, up from 19% last week. The 5-year average for the week is 47%.
Soybeans were rated at 61% good/excellent, down 1 point on week as trade expected. 52% of soybeans were blooming, up from 34% last week and near the five-year average of 51%. 16% were setting pods, versus 7% last week and the 5-year average for the week of 13%.
Spring wheat was rated 34% good/excellent, down 1 point on week and matching trade expectations.
The winter wheat harvest was 75% complete as of Sunday, up 8 points on week. Trade was looking for 78%

[SASKFARMER3]

Australia wheat output may miss forecast. Australian wheat production is on course to miss official forecasts by more than 20% as dry weather crimps yields in the world's fourth-largest exporter, exacerbating fears of tightening global supplies.

[farmaholic]

The less sensitive edible oil markets may need to look at substitution if the Canadian canola crop falls way short of average yields.

At what price will this occur? I think someone is going to go without.

We must be running on fumes now. What's in commercial hands and how much is left on farm?

Probably a good four weeks before new crop supplies become readily available. ....any crushers shut down for maintenance yet?

[SASKFARMER3]

We are the local crushers added a plus 20 basis and they can't get it.

So bins are empty.

ah Hand to mouth works so well.

[farmaholic]

.....well then, they could offer $20/bu right now....if there isn't any left it doesn't matter.

[farming101]

I did not think canola deliveries would be this good to wind down the crop year.

For the week ending July 9 the industry went through about 436,000 tonnes with stocks/in transit coming in at about 947,000 tonnes. Not out yet.
With the early harvest shaping up I think supply problems will not surface until we're into the new crop year a ways. Harvest basis may be disappointing for those of us that have a poor crop to sell.
Also, the crush industry played the basis game like a fine tuned fiddle this year. Just enough carrots to keep the deliveries coming.
Some areas may very well be out of canola but not everywhere.

[farmaholic]

I'm a sucker for carrots 101, bins swept clean here, although I waited until the carrot they dangled was worth my while. Ya, I talk like I knew where it was going.... NOT, I don't mind crow either! Although I won't have to eat crow stew with baby carrots this year!

[farmaholic]

So how much is actually sitting in bins not "priced"?

Spot pricing and deliveries seems a thing of the past.....especially in times of ample supply. Or nothing like Grain Cos having more priced on the books than they have sales and delivery space for.... nice little insurance policy for them.

[farming101]

Unpriced canola in farmers bins? I wouldn't even hazard a guess.
Forecasts were for ending stocks to be around 600,000 tonnes. As of right now I think that's on the low side. Exports will be higher than forecast. Domestic use lower. I think there is significant old crop priced to deliver into August. Also substantial new crop will be coming into the system in August this year. This will keep the industry chugging along.
A good point about substitution. Could happen by the end of 2017-18 if the Canola crop craters.
Watch the world oilseed situation. The first hint of falling stocks for seed/oil/meal combined could be the ignition point for higher prices. Till then the usual pushing and pulling to keep the crop moving will continue.

[SASKFARMER3]

Ah I love the game

The grain buyers never ever want to pay so release bill shit that the crops ok doing fine ahead of schedule. Then you have gov reports and chem companies all saying it's great.
No one spends when the shit hits the fan, so every thing is great.

Then the biggest idiot is farmers. I heard one idiot saying he had a bigger crop than last year. Yes he was hailed out.

Heat makes little seed that's light and low oil.

But what do I know nothing to see here, move on.

[MBgrower]

I can just picture this conversation: "hello, Mr railway, its one of the families calling,.. can you slow down the supply of empty cars at harvest, our basis is getting too low". Mr railways response: "sure we can move this small crop quite easily, we'd rather move it in the spring anyhow, much easier on the equipment".

[stonepicker]

I can just picture this conversation: "hello, Mr railway, its one of the families calling,.. can you slow down the supply of empty cars at harvest, our basis is getting too low". Mr railways response: "sure we can move this small crop quite easily, we'd rather move it in the spring anyhow, much easier on the equipment".

Elevators make money on turnover. Sheesh!

[biglentil]

Its like being a little concerned over a train wreck or plane crash.

[sumdumguy]

It's a sea of yellow around here but all the bloom took place with blasting heat and you can see a gopher run in lots of fields. I would guess that average yield will be 15 bushels/ acre. Areas north of us look a lot better, even on sandy ground.

South and into Montana, it is sad, most fields won't warrant a combine.