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Is it setting up to be a lock the Bins at harvest!

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    Is it setting up to be a lock the Bins at harvest!

    Today lets get back to marketing and strategy as it seems to me the Grain companies are in La La Land with the 2017 crop both in USA Australia Europe and Canada.

    SA has problems also. Its not a perfect growing conditions kind of year.

    So will the USA hit trend line yields I'm thinking no on Corn for sure and Soy if the rains start in August all will fill nice. Wheat is F#$Ked already.

    Now its funny how High Protein wheat is talked about over and over as the market mover thats in Short supply. Oh and Canada Grows that kind. Always told grow this other shit like the rest wheat is wheat. Till their is a shortage.

    So what are strategies farmers will be using?

    For us with a lower yielding crop i have two large contracts for Sept and Oct. for my HRS. Both were sold in the last month when wheat topped. Canola is sitting unpriced except the last of last years that went in last weeks run up.

    My thought is what ever we harvest will rise as the year goes on. HRS they will realize is needed especially if its top quality in Jan. To March. The companies are playing us with all talk of better crop timely rains etc. It isn't adding yield each day its dropping.

    On the Canola side this crop is getting way smaller each day. The crushers were out cleaning farmers bins last week so the big carry over is out of here. Their never was a huge carry over it was all bullshit. But this year they are going to try the same continued supply no problem shitty starting basis.

    Who the F#$K is selling when all farmers know the crop isn't big. Now if the SA and USA crop was growing each day yea maybe it will effect us but unless the pattern changes down their the use crop is in deep shit also.

    Then yesterday Palm is way up but we tank.

    Go figure.

    The USA HRS tour showed a good first day by Fargo. Then the Wheels fell off and today the whole car will implode.

    So let the games begin.

    Get a good basis watch the markets and pull the trigger once we know what we will get. Lots of unknowns right now. Last time a heat wave happened like this the calendar changed to august and it froze go figure. One weekend your burning up and the next you have on long pants and a jacket.

    Feed wheat would add to our problems as that competes with RUSSIA ETC.

    So I think we missed the boat for big sales on fall because the Market knows shit and all they want is cheap grain off the combine.

    Let the games begin Its marketing and yes its us against them.

    They never want to pay what its worth or what we spent on the crop.

    Small crop or large or none at all its time to get serious this year. Lock the bins and leave till better opportunities come

    Share your strategies.

    #2
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    Yield will drop again in the next 7 days, forecast is ugly heat and wind.

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      #3
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      Just another day in paradise.

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        #4
        Priced some wheat on the high 8's..would be foolish to price anymore now.

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          #5
          I agree we priced the fall contracts last week they wanted us to price more. Not a ficking chance this crop is a long way from the bin and frost could screw up whatever is out their. History repeats and the last hot one ended with a frost. Then watch the spread you have Feed the contract is number 2 you pay them either twice the grain in deliveries or come up with Couple hundred thousand.

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            #6
            Not enough people have the financial strength to hold the market hostage. Some excellent pricing opportunities passed and if they weren't taken, for whatever reason, they'll have to wait for the next rally. Until then, if they need cashflow, they will have accept the price of tbe day.

            Might be a good year to take the cash advance if you need cashflow.

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              #7
              I agree. Lots of guys I know are strapped for cash after last years waterworld. Bankers were kind (if there is such a thing). some guys can't afford to lock the bins.

              I have yet to see one 50bushel canola crop and last year 60 bushel was the norm. I see many 10-15 bushel crops this year

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                #8
                A 25 bpa average on 22 million acres would only be an 11mmt canola crop......hahaha....maybe the crushers would be paying the freight from Vancouver for inbound canola .....my sides hurt.

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                  #9
                  Another important marketing factor to remember is Canada's production doesn't matter on the world stage. Take what you get and like it!
                  ....my usual sarcastic "bullshit".
                  Last edited by farmaholic; Jul 26, 2017, 08:25.

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                    #10
                    Farmaholic


                    I usually have to settle for what they give me for my sarcastic bullshit I spew here....on the floor now.....spasming in laughter at the crop that had so much potential only 90 days ago.....

                    And now is a shadow of its potential and everyday it fades more.....

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                      #11
                      That's a good one,crushers paying on freight on inbound canola. Lol

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                        #12
                        Remember some of the GrainCos operate both canola export business and crushing business.... they will allocate the canola to where the margin is highest.... if prices get too high.... it will ration demand.

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                          #13
                          farmaholic " if prices get too high.... it will ration demand. "

                          Let me fix that for you,
                          " if prices get too high.... it will ration EXPORT demand. "

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                            #14
                            danny, I think you are absolutely right. Other than the markets that absolutely only want canola and are willing to pay a premium to other edible oil options. But the lid put on export pricing will be the same lid used to keep domestic crush seed prices in check as well. Who goes without, the export market or crushers.... it arbitrages price-wise thought. Doesn't it?

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                              #15
                              Its not cheap or easy for a salad dressing co or mcdonalds or who ever to flip flop on the oil they use.

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