Canola stocks gonna need an update

[farming101]

Latest CGC weekly #'s (which are suspectas usual) show disappearance of 19,986,700 MT
Very close to forecast use. There is 899,600 MT in the system and who knows how much in that old Westeel-Rosco.
Last forecast was for 600,000 MT carryout.

[farmaholic]

I don't know of anyone that is sitting on canola. Now that statement has to be a market mover.

[bucket]

I think the last spike in prices swept a few more Westco Roscoes out.


This crop isn't as big as most are predicting.

Too many empty spaces in many fields. Those are zeroes.

[farming101]

Canola moving here. Crush plant pumping it out. Seed coming from somewhere.

Yes, new crop a whole different story. Likely will be the usual harvest surge for all the usual reasons. By next summer the industry could be very, very quiet.

[SASKFARMER3]

The 12.71 took us to zero carry over and its bin bottom empty Gone!.

Most were gone before and out.

[bucket]

This drought has to get the numbers right finally.


In other years the industry could pull from new crop to make the numbers work....or ask the railways to slow down to keep things backed up....this year might actually be different....

OK enough of the crazy talk....I lost the tinfoil...


This crop IMHO won't be 14mmt....actually I think between 12 and 13.....that's a 27bpa average.....seems right

[farming101]

Crop could be that small. The traditional high production areas do have good crops coming. Frost needs to stay away.
I'm guessing 25 bpa tops here with 25% pepper in the sample.

[farmaholic]

I should have said "unpriced". Also remember some of the crushers are Graincos as well, what do they have in store? They also use farmer's bin for free storage....priced but possibly undelivered. Price and supply management

[farming101]

As far as the position of stocks goes I don't think it matters if it is priced or unpriced.
Primary elevators shipped out twice as much canola as they received for the final week of the crop year.

There is always some crush plant seed supply that comes from sources other than producers(about 10% for 2016-17 in western Canada), but producers deliver most of it.

[farmaholic]

I would have thought there would have been a higher percentage if inland terminal to crusher transfers. How do they differentiate? I would doubt it's railed in, then how do you tell difference between commercial trucks transfering Grainco canola and commercial trucks hauling farmer canola?

I find it hard to believe any of that is "reported".

[furrowtickler]

Bucket I think that 27 bus will be a very close average across western Canada.
A lot of things going on that could puss that lower and very few things to push it higher this late in the growing season.
A general frost in the black soil zone before Sept 1 will knock that back another 5 bus / ac

[quadtrac]

Our area that an average canola crop is 50-60 bushels an acre the last few years will be lucky to average 25-30 this year.