Canola Forecasts Wide Ranging!

[SASKFARMER3]

There is a wide disparity in production estimates for the 2017 canola crop, says producer.com.
Larry Weber of Weber Commodities forecasts a Canadian harvest of 16.8 million tonnes, although he believes it could easily be lower than that.
Derek Squair, director of merchandising with Providence Grain, is leaning toward the high end of his range of 18.5 to 19.7 million tonnes.
“There is really good crop in Alberta, really good crop in northern Saskatchewan and really good crop in Manitoba,” he said. The exception is a horseshoe shaped area south of Davidson, Sask.

Well since i know both guys I am leaning more to Larry's estimate after my provincial tour.

Derek is always glass half full kind of a guy so yea every thing is rosy and so is his yield assessment.

Look at the facts the north had a great canola crop last year so did for the most part Alberta and all of Sask. and Manitoba. We didn't seed the amount of acres stats Canada is saying we seeded so take total area down a notch. Flooding in the north didn't help and floating on Canola yields will be way lower. Manitoba is a normal crop.


Then take the triangle out like Derek said. But funny that triangle produced a lot of Canola the last few years

So my guess is 16.9 now since the rain will help fill some later seeded canola and pepper will not be as common. Now a frost like their saying for the first week of September will cut production even more. for the northern areas.

Lets all give their best guess.

Bins are going to be empty next summer on farm and the big ones at all the Crushers to.

[SASKFARMER3]

What is every ones guess as the experts are out to tell us. Hey maybe the USDA can come north and magically turn a shit crop into a bumper i don't know but reality is the Central part and Southern part of Sask was the bread basket or Margarine of the last 10 to 15 years with expansion in Canola so if the big hitters from the last 15 years are down by 50% or 70% and the northern still didn't seed all the wet spots or flooded out again or just grew a normal crop like always in Manitoba.

Drove home south of City on back roads last night and came in by golf course to the south. Fields of Canola that last year you could walk on top and not touch the ground this year you can see gophers F#$King a mile out. Ok thats a exaggeration. Two miles out.

[Crazyharrows]

15 million ,early frost less than that.

[bucket]

Statscan will keep it higher for two years and hope to borrow from a normal production year in the future to balance it....

[ajl]

Saw some good canola east of Leduc AB last night so it does exist. Providence grain is based out of Ft SK AB so they are not far from some really shitty canola in AB which can found in Lamont County to the east. Some of that is volunteer stuff too as many acres not seeded. I would bin canola and wait for $12 from the canola I seen in AB.

[SASKFARMER3]

Alja i agree Alberta has some really nice stuff but they also did for every year i have traveled their. Manitoba is same crop as normal. What i saw was areas of Sask. that should have awesome have ok and areas that were new to canola for a few years that are down right ugly. Like a earlier post why is most southern canola standing strait up and no nice tangled mess to swath Ah its drought and it takes yield.

Also yea stats Canada doesn't want to scare our buyers as both Australia and Us have somewhat a way lower crop. So it will be first excess acreage then average to above average crop then in two years hopefully borrow from the 2018 crop to have all ok so prices stay low.

[seabass]

I thot u said your crops sucked for the last 15 years. Now your the bread basket!? Ours or good this year. Not great but will keep the boat floatn.

[SASKFARMER3]

Yea if 55 on 100 acres and rest that you seeded is flooded out since you seeded I guess in your warped way it was ok. Fml some of you just don't give up. It's marketing and from what I have seen the crop isn't a bumper.

[blackpowder]

I dont travel much. But like I said before. I dont see any leaning canola here. Standing straight up. Late tho, could surprise.
Bushels down I'd say.

[furrowtickler]

17.5 top end on Canola
It will drop by 2 mt after the first frost that hits Red Deer to Edmonton to P.A. East and south
In other words the "good" canola horseshoe.
Actually 17.5 would have been the top end , it's dropped already with several hail storms this past week in many areas

[Hamloc]

15 million ,early frost less than that.

Agree 100%, eastern Alberta, southern Alberta really dry no doubt poor yields, central Alberta east of red deer where I am very dry, probably lost 25% of yield in last month. Can't see over 15 million.

[LEP]

There is good and bad out there. Some of it right beside each other. My guess is 17.8 to 18 mmt.

[furrowtickler]

I highly doubt anything over 18 is possible . The very dry area and very high winds and temperatures during flowering is going to surprise even the best areas.
Too much flower blast all over western Canada this summer to even remotely get over 18mt

[SASKFARMER3]

LEP your area has some nice fields as it caught a few rains but you don't have to go very Far East west north or south of you and it changes fast. Go south of white city and then head towards Regina that corner section that's canola. Will go what 23 to 27 last year a mile east of that was a 60 plus. That's reality for canola and I'm probably high with his yield this year.

[errolanderson]

There is good and bad out there. Some of it right beside each other. My guess is 17.8 to 18 mmt.

That's our estimate as well (ProMarket Wire) . . . .