Smaller canola crop....

[farming101]

The first question to ask, taking into consideration how much production a guy has to sell is:

How much 2017 crop do I want to store into 2018-19 crop year? Then one can plan when to take the angle-grinder to the bin door.

Not sure it will end well if everyone stores grain too long. Really not a worry. Will never happen.
Maybe that's where the short crop/long tail saying started.

[farmaholic]

Let's have this conversation after harvest pressure is over. A damn long time til new crop 18 hits the market.

[danny W1M]

We all live in different areas with different traditional basis and have different proximity to crushers, that said.

So all you horny bulls, what's the canola price you have in mind? $0.50 better, a buck, two bucks better than last year? If you could get the high offered last year, would you sell it all?

If it's not high enough, what price do you think it could reach?

[Guest]

Well all im thinking is :
1- 2016 record wheat crop
2- (may 2017) 2 yr burdensome supply
3- (june 2017). Holy shit , the wheats all gone
4 - severe drought in south and west , too wet in north and east , many acres idle or way too late
I,m sure going to wait for a while if we get these crops w/o frost or winter . Whatever i can get over $7 or $8 helps the price on earlier years that went for $5.50

[danny W1M]

What was that little blip in June? I think it partially had to do with the poor corn/bean crop ratings, and the possibility that some wheat maybe needed for feed rations. Once they started getting rain the prices dropped off. Sure we have harvest pressure now too. Big harvest in Russia/Ukraine, who the hell knows?

[farmaholic]

If canola can be the $12 I got earlier this summer. ...why can't it be at the moment? Some companies are actively looking but they're no different than anyone else AND don't want to pay anymore than they have to. Current prices are a damn good starting point compared to last year's. So maybe there already has been some "reaction" to the reality. There will always be somebody willing, or having to, sell....

[seabass]

Thats exactly the problem Farma. Too many guys addicted to iron and the payments force them to sell at whatever price the deem profitable. Keeps the pipeline flowing and the companies keep dangling a carrot to suck more into the pipeline. We are victims of our own greed or desire to have more. Never seems to end then the bitching and complaining starts about how we are getting the same prices we got 30 years ago.

[Oliver88]

I'd be surprised if Canola doesn't go down to $10 or lower during harvest and HRS goes below $6 within 3 weeks due to "harvest pressure"......and people will still sell.

I'm thinking $12-$14 in the April- July timeframe canola......$7-9 HRS?