Smaller canola crop....

[furrowtickler]

Same goes for Meadow Lake area and NE sask area .

[fjlip]

The Canadian Prairies received an unusually varied patchwork of weather this growing season, including soggy weather in parts of Alberta and Saskatchewan and a favorable combination of heat and timely rains in other areas. Trade estimates range widely for wheat and canola production. Hot, dry weather likely damaged canola, spring wheat and durum grown in a narrow band north of the U.S. border, said Jerry Klassen, manager of GAP SA Grains and Products in Winnipeg. Robust crops in other areas balanced some of those losses, he said. "It's not a disaster, but it's not what we're used to seeing the last four to five years," he said, referring to some of the biggest harvests ever. Much of the Prairies, where most of Canada's wheat and canola grows, has received less than 60 percent of normal precipitation during the past 60 days, according to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. Even so, crops have proven resilient before. "As has be-come the norm, less than ideal growing conditions don’t translate to low (canola) production numbers given today's crop science," said Tony Tryhuk, manager of commodity trading at RBC Dominion Securities. Harvesting is running well ahead of schedule, limiting the risk of damage to immature plants from frost, Klassen said. Statscan surveyed farmers from July 19 through Aug. 1.

[danny W1M]

Almost finished swathing all my canola. A lot more disappointing than I was expecting. Thin wispy stalks in the grain cart wheel marks from being too wet this spring, along with drowned out areas from a single big rain after planting. Yet the crops production is damaged mostly by untimely high heat, and drought, where the roots couldn't grow down fast enough during those hotter late May early June days, the bolting period. Not just that there are pods missing mid branch, but just not as many branches as there should be. Crop I thought would conservatively be 35ish, now looking to be 20-25.

First time I can say that the damage in a canola crop is from both, too much rain and not enough rain.

[furrowtickler]

Hot dry winds caused significant yield loss up to and north of HWY 16 in some cases . From the Hwy between Stoon and Regina to HWY 2 . With only a few good areas in there . These guys are paid to keep a lid on the market .
Any pea or canola crop in most of that area has been affected.

[MBgrower]

s. mb seing some incredible cereal yields, but canola is average. canola is the new flax in mb, in that it was a mainstream crop, but is slowly becoming a fringe high risk, poor yielding, low net income crop. wheat and especially soybeans give me a better return year over year. pretty silent at the canola council about the economics of growing canola, but then again it is run by the agri retailers .

[furrowtickler]

Sadly you are right mbgrower

[Guest]

The unseeded acres are not insignificant. A huge area south of me looks like the good old days of half and half, every second field is summerfallow. Except this area never did summerfallow and it is some of the best soil anywhere. Much of it has now not produced for two years in a row.

North east and west of carrot river worse. Virtually nothing seeded. Choiceland area bad also

[vvalk]

Let's just look at the numbers. Incredible overall average yields last year which no matter what will not be repeated this year prairies wide. Question how much smaller? My bet, this years crop is by % smaller then the % increase in acres over last year. That being said they ate through all of last years crops evidenced by the crushers and exports running dry this last month. If they just made it this year they won't have enough canola to make it to next august. Even though I know Errol will say to sell cause prices are going lower ( they are always going lower) I think I'll see where the price are at April through July. The canola can sit in the bin until then. Just my 2 cents

[furrowtickler]

I would have to agree vvalk

[farmaholic]

Careful fellas...you can either feed the market and grow it or starve it and kill it!

Although the market just might have to pay more for it's lunch AND eat less.

Happy harvest and work safe.

[farming101]

The first question to ask, taking into consideration how much production a guy has to sell is:

How much 2017 crop do I want to store into 2018-19 crop year? Then one can plan when to take the angle-grinder to the bin door.

Not sure it will end well if everyone stores grain too long. Really not a worry. Will never happen.
Maybe that's where the short crop/long tail saying started.

[farmaholic]

Let's have this conversation after harvest pressure is over. A damn long time til new crop 18 hits the market.

[danny W1M]

We all live in different areas with different traditional basis and have different proximity to crushers, that said.

So all you horny bulls, what's the canola price you have in mind? $0.50 better, a buck, two bucks better than last year? If you could get the high offered last year, would you sell it all?

If it's not high enough, what price do you think it could reach?

[Guest]

Well all im thinking is :
1- 2016 record wheat crop
2- (may 2017) 2 yr burdensome supply
3- (june 2017). Holy shit , the wheats all gone
4 - severe drought in south and west , too wet in north and east , many acres idle or way too late
I,m sure going to wait for a while if we get these crops w/o frost or winter . Whatever i can get over $7 or $8 helps the price on earlier years that went for $5.50

[danny W1M]

What was that little blip in June? I think it partially had to do with the poor corn/bean crop ratings, and the possibility that some wheat maybe needed for feed rations. Once they started getting rain the prices dropped off. Sure we have harvest pressure now too. Big harvest in Russia/Ukraine, who the hell knows?