Durum high

[Daylate]

Have we seen it?
Has the drought been over sold?
Seems to be dropping hard all week.
Did I miss my pricing opportunity?
I Have to say. We are out of the traditional growing area. But grow it anyways. Quality looks great so far. And yields seem good for only receiving 1 to 1.25 inches of rain all year. Just started it and that can change. But what are other areas seeing?

[the big wheel]

Had to hire another complete crew just to haul from the combines. Must have gone about 80. F drought could have been a good crop with one more inch.

[farmaholic]

Nope...just "Harvest Happy Hour" for some. And others might be trying to send the signal they don't want any more at the time...store it.

[dave4441]

Pea and lentil yields have surprised to the upside, I can't imagine why durum (which looked better all along) wouldn't as well. I don't trade durum in any capacity and didn't grow any this year but it feels like a sell at $9-10/bu. I admit i have not followed closely the USA durum prospects, but there are good and bad areas in Montana and ND, which we have similar situation in Canada. I know this because we have lentil contracts in USA and some are good some are bad.

At today's price what is your gross (or net) return per acre?

We are seeing some growers with 30 bushel green lentil crops look at 40 cent large green lentil prices as being "too cheap" and want to store the product and wait for more. $720+/ac??. Likely doesn't end well. When prices get too high people become resourceful. We are seeing countries forego green lentil demand for red lentils. Price spread gets too high and people experiment.

While i realize lots of people won't like these comments, it is reality. People have to start looking at gross dollars per acre when marketing and rarely do we hear those things. Everyone is trying to guess where price is moving towards and reality is no one knows. I see over and over people think prices will go up and they wait all year and take whatever price is available june/july. This is crazy. It is a 50:50 bet. I can do that in a casino but if i wanted to gamble.

By end of Sept i will have 100% of my product sold and shipped from our farm, as long as weather holds. Much of it is already sold as of today. I trade a significant chunk of Canada's exports of canaryseed from Canada and i don't know for sure if it will go up or down. I am in the market everyday and i don't know enough to bet on that market and hold the product. I am now working on crop plan for next year. Figured out acreage and inputs last few days and started getting fertilizer. pricing.

[farmaholic]

Let's wait til harvest pressure is over and then have this conversation. A damn long time til new crop 18 hits the market.

Gamble? Just one more. And yup, I would say we seen a level in some recent crop prices that have more downside potential than upside. But after harvest they may recover to their recent highs.... or higher.... or not!

I probably know the least but some things would indicate.....

[dave4441]

Let's wait til harvest pressure is over and then have this conversation. A damn long time til new crop 18 hits the market.

Gamble? Just one more. And yup, I would say we seen a level in some recent crop prices that have more downside potential than upside. But after harvest they may recover to their recent highs.... or higher.... or not!

I probably know the least but some things would indicate.....

You hit the nail on the head farma, but in inverse. Long time until Crop 18 hits the market but the market will play where they expect the puck to be long before it is actually there. In a few months people will start to make plans on what they are growing, taking risk off the table and forward selling for 2018. Mills now have a fixed amount of time to substitute until the next crop. This has been a classic weather market. Buy the rumor and sell the fact.

[mbratrud]

Dave444. I would bet there are just as many guys out there that thought there lentils would be 25-30 and they were actually 12-20. It will all get sorted out in the end.

I think the thing I'll be watching is moisture for the next 6 months. Is the drought just beginning?

[farmaholic]

I think the thing I'll be watching is moisture for the next 6 months. Is the drought just beginning?

Scary thought. And last night that advancing rain ran up against that invisible wall again and couldn't reach our farm. Maybe next time.

[dave4441]

I think lentil crop is significantly larger then almost everyone thought. Very few overly optimistic growers and traders this year. Surprise was totally to upside on yield. Much of this will get sorted out, just will be lower prices then a couple weeks ago.

[bucket]

Not here....very disappointed with lentil yields on my farm....


Peas as well....

Low prices and shitty yield. ...yikes.

But good quality....

Sure wish I could buy a Denali for a chevette price....

[furrowtickler]

Funny how the buyers always talk up the yields .... interesting .
Pea yields in general in this area so far are 20-40% below normal .. fact
Canola will be the same . The odd one will be better and some well below normal.
There will be some bigger yields west and NW through Turtleford area .
It will be highly variable in the whole NW Sask from some crops above normal to many below .

[bucket]

Interesting factoid....

Export prices are higher or stable over the last 2 weeks and yet prairie prices are dropping like a rock. ...

Most guys have the storage for this crop.....


If my grain hits a railcar it's probably taking a paid for ride to the west coast or Thunder Bay. ...


Not hard to see the minus 3.50 dollar a bushel basis.....