Canola Marketing

[biglentil]

Yeah, yields in MB definitely aren't going to be able to make up the the loses that have been projected in drought areas.

I am going to be curious what sask yields come in as at the end of the day. Been hearing guys are impressed with them so far. Not great but a lot better than the disaster many were expecting.

The thing i think some are forgetting is how much of last years canola is out there. Most likely sub 3% of the total production. That means this crop is gonna have to carry us all the way through till next year. June/July may be a pretty nice pricing area.

Ya lots of rose coloured glasses on I guess 25 bushel canola is a pleasant surprise for those expecting 15. Sick of hearing industry members trying to pat our backs on how its not bad at all. For a massive area of our province its a ****ing disaster plain and simple.

[Guest]

Of the last 8 years, only once has the Final production number been less than Stat's Can August production estimates. They took up 2016 production 1.17 million tones in this report as their previous numbers couldn't support the COPA crush as well as CGC posted exports for the year. With the crop likely at 19.5-20 million there will be demand but at current canola/bean spreads there is more money in crushing beans. Expect we need to see a sustained rally in beans before canola can start to move.

every co. has an $11 premium here ? I think it's been moving already ??

[AlbertaFarmer5]

I believe a third of the acres are 50 % of last year.A third is 65% and a third is the same.Now.someone with this year's and last year's can do the math and that is my prediction.

You may be correct, but it makes a big difference which third is which, 1/3 of 60 is twice as much as 1/3 of 30(with apologies to captain obvious). Are most of the disasters in the historically poor yeilding areas? I would call much of central alberta a disaster, and historically high yeilding.

If all acres have equal weight then crop is 72.66 % of last year. Don't think it is quite that bad.

[Partners]

If the total is down 25%.then we need 14.00 to make as much dollars as last yr..
We put a 14 dollar target in this morning..RP says why..because it will be there in June..time to screw with there minds..like they do ours.

[Guest]

If the total is down 25%.then we need 14.00 to make as much dollars as last yr..
We put a 14 dollar target in this morning..RP says why..because it will be there in June..time to screw with there minds..like they do ours.

that's what we all should do , partners . all our high acid is locked in for that and it is the best looking canola

[newguy]

You may be correct, but it makes a big difference which third is which, 1/3 of 60 is twice as much as 1/3 of 30(with apologies to captain obvious). Are most of the disasters in the historically poor yeilding areas? I would call much of central alberta a disaster, and historically high yeilding.

If all acres have equal weight then crop is 72.66 % of last year. Don't think it is quite that bad.

Last year there was not the difference in South sask yields compared to else where that there normally is.Acres are up huge so that is the only thing bringing up production numbers.But I feel production will still be lower than last year by quite a bit.

[fjlip]

Talking locking bins is like herding cats, might go up till first guys sell... bills need to be paid, same every year, farmer selling. Divided we are, the market knows us well.

[farmaholic]

Talking locking bins is like herding cats, might go up till first guys sell... bills need to be paid, same every year, farmer selling. Divided we are, the market knows us well.

That $14 target would send quite the message.

We all have our own distinct farms to manage. Not everyone can dig in their heels for ever and that is ok. We all have different profit points too. Not all farms are made from the same cookie cutter that's for sure.
I will have to keep remembering not everyone in Western Canada had a sub thirty bu/ac canola crop and will have to keep my pricing expectations realistic. I definitely won't be as profitable as alot of other canola growers this year, not my turn I guess.

I will have to be like Stats Can and rob a little of last year's margin to make up for this year's poorer results.

[Hopalong]

Agree that lock the bins has a catchy emotional appeal to some of us but is not a good marketing tool.

[bucket]

A lot of canola growers booked prices on a percentage of their expected yields....that percentage may have changed....gotta let that get pushed thru the system....

And then there is the new numbers on the the sides of combines that have to be smelled. ....or inhaled....