Canola yields...

[vvalk]

L Weber, are you going to cancel my subsription and refund the remaining fees for dragging you into this?

Not going after Larry. Just stating opinions for a constructive discussion.

[iceman]

Stats can average will be 36.5 bushels per acre. Come hell or no water.
Now if it's accurate or not is the question

Iceman Out

[DaneG]

If that map is rain amounts it must be forecast amounts certainly isn't actual rainfall in my area, not compared to the last 15 yrs!

[tweety]

Send me those coordinates Klause when you have time and I can pinpoint the quarter section on my NDVI map.

Grain companies today have better information than they ever had; farmers pay them to be crop scouts and they in turn, feed that info back to their head office. Good gig. Beats a weekly report from primary elevators. Between that and the yield monitors in combines that communicate back to equipment manufacturers every night, soon the world will know how many non water dumps you've had while in the field, that were not environmentally friendly.

You can all argue yields, who is full of bullshit and who got laid last - but in the end; you're giving the most valuable piece of farming that you don't own - information.

You are so right LWeber.

Farmers love to either give away or pay huge sums of money to give away valuable data. Mind boggling.

Not sure what it would take for "techy" farmers to realize how negligent they are with their own information.

[Ache4Acres]

Larry I have to say that nvdi map is likely complete garbage.

It shows "dark green" all southeast of regina. that is laughable. The fields were so scary ugly all year that it was mind numbing. Thin, blown stunted are perfect descriptive words.

Most canola along Hwy 33 is sub 20 bushel. Lots 10-15. We had some of the best looking canola around and I think we might make high 20s when it's all said and done. That is compared to 62 last year.

An orbiting satellite won't match boots on the ground or put grain in the tank.

I honestly question your motivations and i wonder if you sincerely believe what you are saying. When commodity trading companies work to potentially manipulate a market in order to increase their own profits ....aren't there are laws against that.

[SASKFARMER3]

Square section i drive by every day just outside of regina on way out to Tims then the farm it always impressed me since they started growing canola back about ten years ago. Well the section beside last year was a 56 to 62 bus crop from one end to the other. This year the section i drive buy if it makes 22 to 25 thats all she wrote.

How does this work then the northern Canola or Manitoba is what 99 BUS per acre. Some of this new math that gets taught is starting to show up.

To the West of us any thing from 25 to 30 to 35 and where a rain hit in july 45. Yea lets look at last year here also 42 45 47 57.

New math makes Sense.

[Guest]

looks like more market analysts need to walk more fields . lots of canola going under 30 here with 5.5" rain . here's a tip for the analysts , CANOLA DOESNT LIKE TO FLOWER , FINISH UP, (GET CUT OR SPRAYED) in 30+ degree heat ???. this is the northeast . everywhere has had 60-80 days of heat , no one in their right mind should think their is a big crop out there ! but if I was a buyer , I would be pretty scared of where my supply was going to come from next year

[SASKFARMER3]

Well said.

[Casered]

Tell bill he is full of shit! Just saying

Bill Aullie?

[furrowtickler]

NVDI maps are cool but they do not show flower blast , which is big in southern Sask , or small heat shrunk seeds . I have been actually growing canola for 30 years now . I know for a fact those factors are undetectable from any satellite. That's impossible. But those two factors can and will cause yield loss of up to 50% .
Those fields can look as green as grass but that means nothing till the combines roll. And has been pointed out by caseih , the canola weight is down and seed weight loss is big . By volume the actual seed yield is down 10 - 20 % , depending on timing of swathing .
I have seen this before where zero rain and warm temps follow swathing - it a fact.
The past 5 days has proved that . We do several trials and use a weigh wagon . Well the actual weight in cart is 5-10% less than the bus / ac on combine .
The combine is right - when adjusted to 10% moisture. But we don't get paid for that at elevator, you get paid by the weight in your truck , not what the combine bus/ ac says . I think with out checking with a scale , some bus / ac will be out by 20-25% . CaseIH has pointed this out as well.
Canola losses are extremely variable at 4.5 to 5 % moisture. As are yields .... lol.
Anyway , not denying the crop may be bigger than it was predicted 1-2 months ago but there are far too many factors going on for it to hit the numbers you pointed out Larry . I could be wrong but after talking and sharing info with a whole network of reps with weigh wagons wagons from one end of western Canada to the other, what I stated above is the same everywhere. Some areas that actually had rain in June / July are better for sure , but the same issues with dry seed and seed weight are from corner to corner .

[Casered]

This is south of roleau in July.


This did not run 47... I drove that area a lot ..
90% looked like this. [ATTACH]2100[/ATTACH]


It's like the guy doing 89 but peas here this year when everybody else's are running 40 to 55...

There are some fields is the 40's in the dry areas. Those fields where grown on lentil stubble and on heavy clay. Those same Farms with some fields making 40 are also getting fields in the low 30's. Go south of Rouleau a little more And many farms won't be averaging anywhere near 30 this year. No way the canola in sask will yield the same as last year. The farms on heavy clay last year where in the 55-60 bu range. Even further south of Rouleau where the canola is running in the 20's guys had 50+ last year. I guess the north will average 80bu to make up for the short fall in the south this year. Farmers always want to tell the good yields they rarely tell you about their worst crops.

[Farmfleury]

Canola was the most disappointing crop on the farm by far this year. The heat took its toll early.
I have fields vary from 8 bus to 28 on Dryland. Even the Irrigation was horrible. It ranged from 37 to 55. Of course I have a scale and all loads are weighed into bin and its amazing how little a bin of Canola will hold compared to its bushel size. Guy with the scale usually has the lowest yield for some strange reason.
Crops looked huge in size all year but flowered for 3 weeks when we were over 30 degrees every day. Tiny little pods.