Canola yields...

[farmaholic]

Larry Weber quote:

"Some somber thoughts - moving SK canola average yield from 33.5 bpa to 36.5 bpa results in total canola production going from 19.2 to 20.1 MMT. Moving Alberta and SK canola yields to last years levels would leave a canola crop in Canada of 22.6 MMT. Still second guessing booking some canola? Yield results have been outright unreal."

I didn't think they were that good here. I will help bring the average down and the area affected I think is quite large.

I still think the trade has built in a bit of price increase for the short crop....but I think there is only one way for it to go after harvest happy hour is over.

[4GFarms]

Sf3 is right. Its about 70% of our usual yields. Not sure what is going on with prices but boy are they going in the shitter. Tighten the belt another knoch! Dont come looking for me to buy inputs anytime soon with these poor prices. Getting ridiculous!!! I am with you farma, I think prices have to rise eventually but not sure how long a guy can hold out.

[vvalk]

Statscan has Manitoba pegged for 38.9 bpa(39 last year) on 3.15 million acres(200,000 acres more than last year) for total production of 2.7783 MMT. Maybe there will be a little less SK canola flowing to Altona to keep the place going

Monster crops in Manitoba. 2.8MT less then 15% of the total crop and it's going to make up all the drought areas as well as all the heat and wind?

[farming101]

Word on the street--Get your fertilizer now. Hurricanes are going to cut off supply. Oh boy

Actually I know it's a long shot but with the huge drop in soil moisture reserves we will need good fall rains to give us a chance for any kind of a crop next year.
Ya it's a long shot. Doesn't matter right now.

[furrowtickler]

Yes there are some big yield in the strip that got rain here in the NW
But look at a map of western Canada and it represents a jiffy marker line from south of Unity through Paynton to Edam ( Larry's home town 😁) through St Walburg .
It's all about the big picture .
There is a far bigger area with lower yields than there is with big yields when you step back and look at it that way .

[bucket]

Funny the price of gas shot up due to hurricanes and while the refineries are coming back on stream ....American gas prices are coming back down meanwhile federated continue to take their pound of flesh....

[Kinger]

Southern Saskatchewan was the worst hit by the drought that's pretty set in stone, but how much canola is grown there compared to the rest of the Province?

Historically it is the driest area so would it not be bigger lentil and durum country than canola?

Yields from MB are breaking farmer records and the ones from Sask i'm hearing aren't great but are decent given the year. Guys were expecting 5-10 but pulling off 20-25. Still not great but better than expected.

Those are yields from the south part of Sk not sure how it is doing to the north.

Or I could be totally wrong. 50/50 either way.

[bucket]

Farming101

Get your fertilizer now ....yup ....but 3 dollar corn doesn't buy much fertilizer in the states....

[SASKFARMER3]

To the Manitoba guy. Yes not much canola was grown years ago in the south and west side but since the rains started the big hitting area for yield was that area. Hell I have friends that said what's wrong with you you can't get 60 canola every year up north. Mean while we were sitting in swamp infested fields and hill tops produced 60 and low areas cattails. So yea Manitoba has good crops and south has 25 it's not 60 that's 35 bus difference and I know Manitoba isn't growing 105 bus canola that s not happening.

[LWeber]

Hows this for bigger Jiffy Marker:

South of Rouleau, SK

Sent: September 8, 2017 6:40 AM
To: SUBSCRIPTIONS

I guess I should have booked in some canola when we combined ours... we are done harvest now

Green lentils. Lg and small. 33 bushels
Wheat 73
Canola 47

1.25 inches of rain

___________________________________________

Another 4 canola yield emails from this morning

Biggar: 47 and 51 bpa
Eston: 42
Swift Current: 34 bpa average - done combining

You need an average SK yield of under 26 bpa to get to 16.9 MMT

[grassfarmer]

45-50bu canola seems to be the range around here in SW Manitoba.

[Klause]

Hows this for bigger Jiffy Marker:

South of Rouleau, SK

Sent: September 8, 2017 6:40 AM
To: SUBSCRIPTIONS

I guess I should have booked in some canola when we combined ours... we are done harvest now

Green lentils. Lg and small. 33 bushels
Wheat 73
Canola 47

1.25 inches of rain

___________________________________________

Another 4 canola yield emails from this morning

Biggar: 47 and 51 bpa
Eston: 42
Swift Current: 34 bpa average - done combining

You need an average SK yield of under 26 bpa to get to 16.9 MMT

This is south of roleau in July.


This did not run 47... I drove that area a lot ..
90% looked like this.


It's like the guy doing 89 but peas here this year when everybody else's are running 40 to 55...

[LWeber]

I've known him for 20 years - met him and his son numerous times - salt of the earth people.
I trust him enough that he is on my acreage surveys - I'll take 20 years of that history over that picture from wherever.

[furrowtickler]

Well I guess if that's the case I am phoning right now to sell all ours asap
If that number is close Larry are we looking at $9 canola for the next 10 months? Is that the just of it ?

[Klause]

I've known him for 20 years - met him and his son numerous times - salt of the earth people.
I trust him enough that he is on my acreage surveys - I'll take 20 years of that history over that picture from wherever.

That picture is gereferenced so if you import it into a photo app you can actually see the exact coordinates where it was taken.


Maybe your friend there was in a spot that hit a shower at the right time. However when I'm getting texts from market development trials (plots) and their yields have a really hard time hitting 45... Sorry for being skeptical.


I think come december elevators will be going where the heck is the grain.