Stats Can Production

[furrowtickler]

Canola will shake out around the 18.5 number I think .
There is frost damage in canola just swathed or not even swathed yet in a big area west and north of here.
Yields coming out of the wet areas from summer are good but not as huge as first thought . Many have said on here from experience that canola seeded into mud does not perform all that great.
Some surprises in drier areas but also just as many disappointments.
The heat did take a toll and so did bugs in all areas. I will be surprised if the final number is over 19 but time will tell .
It will be over 16.9 , if and that's if all this crop comes off .
There is a huge area of canola not in the bin yet . Again time will tell. The market was blessed with a great two weeks in November last year to keep stocks in check. Anything can happen yet , they should never count this crop till it's in the bin. It's still only a numbers game , but it sure keeps a lid on prices by predicting big numbers that may or may not be there at the end of the day.

[nicolaas]

I see monster canola crops. we will see what the -4 deg last week did

[ajl]

I sure hope those numbers are not accurate. There are a lot of unseeded acres in Northern Alberta. If all those acres go back into production in 18, the surplus grain will be everywhere.

[Agvocate]

Growing a large crop in Canada shouldn't be a concern. In fact that is what every grower strives to do year after year. There is the demand for a 20 million tone crop. Canada exported 10.878 million MT of seed and crushed 9.143 million MT. We used over 20 million tones before you get to Feed, Seed and Waste. Simply maintaining last years usage (20.021) we have a tighter carryout than the prior year.

[LEP]

My estimate mid summer was 18 to 18.5 I think. Taking into account higher seeded acres, I am leaning towards 18.5. I don't think 19.7 is possible.

Our yields were less than half of last year and are typical for the area. There are some whose yields are the same as last year, some are better than last year. I would say that those that are better than last year are alot smaller acres than those whose yields are worse than last year.

Just my opinion.

[ajl]

Growing a large crop in Canada shouldn't be a concern. In fact that is what every grower strives to do year after year. There is the demand for a 20 million tone crop. Canada exported 10.878 million MT of seed and crushed 9.143 million MT. We used over 20 million tones before you get to Feed, Seed and Waste. Simply maintaining last years usage (20.021) we have a tighter carryout than the prior year.

Looked at wheat prices lately?

[Agvocate]

Looked at wheat prices lately?

Yeah, but I don't know what that has to do with canola supply/demand or price? There is wheat everywhere in the world and no new demand. On top of that Canada has a low protein crop so you are competing with inferior wheat quality elsewhere. It's simple economics, canola supply and demand are both strong so price should remain steady. Wheat supply is burdensome and demand is weak. You get to 12.0 protein and you have to compete with HRW that is traded over the KC futures and $1.75 discount to Spring Wheat futures. So long answer is yes I know what wheat is worth but its apples and oranges.

[furrowtickler]

Just because demand is there for 20 does not mean they have to talk up this crop to 20 . That seems to be come hell or high water the number they want to promote
Time will tell . The "market " may not like it but we will be short of the magic 20 number they crave .

[fjlip]

Seems like...

CNS Canada — Canadian canola and wheat production likely ended up larger than earlier estimates, according to computer model-based data released Tuesday by Statistics Canada.

The model-based estimates are calculated by incorporating satellite data, agro-climate data, and Statistics Canada’s field crop reporting data. The numbers compare with the survey of farmers released Aug. 31.

Total canola production is now forecast at a record 19.7 million tonnes, compared to 18.2 million forecast in August, and the year-ago level of 19.6 million.

Canadian all-wheat production (including durum) was raised to 27.1 million, from 25.5 million. Wheat production in 2016 came in at 31.7 million tonnes.


“We’re still seeing the impact of the drought, but it’s just not as dramatic,” said Bruce Burnett, director of markets and weather with Glacier FarmMedia, on the increased yields from August.

“It fits in with what the trade was expecting (and) the trade still thinks the numbers will go higher from here.

“I don’t think it changes the overall market picture all that much,” he added. While canola production may be at a new record, he said demand remains strong as well and supplies will not be considered burdensome.

“The feeling from the field over the course of the harvest is that yields are coming in better than expected,” said analyst Mike Jubinville of ProFarmer Canada.

“I don’t think we’re done yet,” he added, noting “I think we have a (canola) crop of over 20 million tonnes.”

— Phil Franz-Warkentin writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting. Follow him at @PhilFW on Twitter.

[LWeber]

Well well well the bill Shit continues canola will never in a million years be at 20 mt it's really 16.9 no more or less

My favourite Suits quote...