Stats Can Production

[ajl]

Growing a large crop in Canada shouldn't be a concern. In fact that is what every grower strives to do year after year. There is the demand for a 20 million tone crop. Canada exported 10.878 million MT of seed and crushed 9.143 million MT. We used over 20 million tones before you get to Feed, Seed and Waste. Simply maintaining last years usage (20.021) we have a tighter carryout than the prior year.

Looked at wheat prices lately?

[Agvocate]

Looked at wheat prices lately?

Yeah, but I don't know what that has to do with canola supply/demand or price? There is wheat everywhere in the world and no new demand. On top of that Canada has a low protein crop so you are competing with inferior wheat quality elsewhere. It's simple economics, canola supply and demand are both strong so price should remain steady. Wheat supply is burdensome and demand is weak. You get to 12.0 protein and you have to compete with HRW that is traded over the KC futures and $1.75 discount to Spring Wheat futures. So long answer is yes I know what wheat is worth but its apples and oranges.

[furrowtickler]

Just because demand is there for 20 does not mean they have to talk up this crop to 20 . That seems to be come hell or high water the number they want to promote
Time will tell . The "market " may not like it but we will be short of the magic 20 number they crave .

[fjlip]

Seems like...

CNS Canada — Canadian canola and wheat production likely ended up larger than earlier estimates, according to computer model-based data released Tuesday by Statistics Canada.

The model-based estimates are calculated by incorporating satellite data, agro-climate data, and Statistics Canada’s field crop reporting data. The numbers compare with the survey of farmers released Aug. 31.

Total canola production is now forecast at a record 19.7 million tonnes, compared to 18.2 million forecast in August, and the year-ago level of 19.6 million.

Canadian all-wheat production (including durum) was raised to 27.1 million, from 25.5 million. Wheat production in 2016 came in at 31.7 million tonnes.


“We’re still seeing the impact of the drought, but it’s just not as dramatic,” said Bruce Burnett, director of markets and weather with Glacier FarmMedia, on the increased yields from August.

“It fits in with what the trade was expecting (and) the trade still thinks the numbers will go higher from here.

“I don’t think it changes the overall market picture all that much,” he added. While canola production may be at a new record, he said demand remains strong as well and supplies will not be considered burdensome.

“The feeling from the field over the course of the harvest is that yields are coming in better than expected,” said analyst Mike Jubinville of ProFarmer Canada.

“I don’t think we’re done yet,” he added, noting “I think we have a (canola) crop of over 20 million tonnes.”

— Phil Franz-Warkentin writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting. Follow him at @PhilFW on Twitter.

[LWeber]

Well well well the bill Shit continues canola will never in a million years be at 20 mt it's really 16.9 no more or less

My favourite Suits quote...

[furrowtickler]

Lol that's good Larry

[SASKFARMER3]

Now that's a good one!

[farming101]

I wonder where fields of green soybeans that are only just starting to drop leaves and hardly have any pods fit into the model

[vvalk]

I wonder where fields of green soybeans that are only just starting to drop leaves and hardly have any pods fit into the model

Maybe I'm paying more attention this year but it seams to me that we are hearing a lot of talk about how big these crops are ore then ever. Elevators and Analyst calling that the highs are on already for this marketing year. Even viterra sending out their report congratulating people for hitting the durum highs for the year. On canola if the acres are up 10% that's going to help but can anyone on here believe that this canola crop is within 10% of lasts year canola crop? Not saying it's a horrible crop but it's smaller then 10% of last years prairie wide bumper crop. Let them increase last years crop, the higher the better, showed we used that much since the pipeline was dry in august. Also if we got $12 for canola last year why not this year even with a $20MT crop. Why all the pressure to sell at $11? Same with durum, viterra is at $7.33 for #1 durum and the viterra buyer says morocco is waiting a few months because they think pricing is going down in Canada! Do you think they believe that? I'm going to sell them #1 durum with a $6 in front on the worst drought on 90% of the durum acres in 15 years? The more talk I hear the more skeptical I get on everyone's intentions. Just doesn't add up to me. And I'll say it again Manitoba is 15%

[SASKFARMER3]

It's not a big crop their lying to everyone.

[bucket]

Vvalk

I concur with your comments....to paraphrase.....there's a lot of bullshit being slung....

If railways went to 1 million tonnes a week....they would empty the elevators in two weeks....guys are holding grain and it's in tight hands....

[grefer]

No matter the real number perception is reality in the markets.

[sumdumguy]

Seems like...

CNS Canada — Canadian canola and wheat production likely ended up larger than earlier estimates, according to computer model-based data released Tuesday by Statistics Canada.

The model-based estimates are calculated by incorporating satellite data, agro-climate data, and Statistics Canada’s field crop reporting data. The numbers compare with the survey of farmers released Aug. 31.

Total canola production is now forecast at a record 19.7 million tonnes, compared to 18.2 million forecast in August, and the year-ago level of 19.6 million.

Canadian all-wheat production (including durum) was raised to 27.1 million, from 25.5 million. Wheat production in 2016 came in at 31.7 million tonnes.


“We’re still seeing the impact of the drought, but it’s just not as dramatic,” said Bruce Burnett, director of markets and weather with Glacier FarmMedia, on the increased yields from August.

“It fits in with what the trade was expecting (and) the trade still thinks the numbers will go higher from here.

“I don’t think it changes the overall market picture all that much,” he added. While canola production may be at a new record, he said demand remains strong as well and supplies will not be considered burdensome.

“The feeling from the field over the course of the harvest is that yields are coming in better than expected,” said analyst Mike Jubinville of ProFarmer Canada.

“I don’t think we’re done yet,” he added, noting “I think we have a (canola) crop of over 20 million tonnes.”

— Phil Franz-Warkentin writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting. Follow him at @PhilFW on Twitter.

Yep, computer-based data! Hate to say it but I am suspicious of these predictions. I worked a farm program where we used satellite imagery to identify crops. Our picture data turned up forage for barley and we swore off thousands of acres of barley in Alberta and argued with farmers until they proved us wrong. Inconsistent crop stages gave inaccurate results on our computer-generated identification, it may have improved or here we go again.

[sumdumguy]

No big yields around here. Lots of reseeded puny, spindly fluff in the field that will yield 10 bushels. Wonder what the computer model aays about those acres?

[farmaholic]

Are the Merchants too short on a short crop?