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    China?

    When will China become a major importer of commodities and tip the balance from surplus to shortage?

    They have large trading surlpus not getting on too well with your neighbour to the south.

    Looks like our HGCA is on the ball.

    CHINESE millers successfully used United Kingdom wheats to bake their traditional breads at a bread-baking workshop held in Shenzhen.

    China, a large potential market for the UK, invited HGCA (Home-Grown Cereals Authority) to hold the event at a time when the Chinese market is opening up to imports.



    "A bread-baking workshop is the best way for the Chinese millers to gain first-hand experience of using UK wheats," said Andrew Flux, manager of BCE (British Cereal Exports). "We now know that UK wheats are suitable for typical Chinese breads. They used Einstein, Solstice, Claire and Consort and all varieties and blends performed well. Feedback was very positive."
    China is the world's largest producer of wheat but over the last five years a number of policy changes mean that production has fallen to levels below consumption. This year, United States Department of Agriculture figures show production at 94 million tonnes but consumption at 109 million tonnes. To date, it is believed that they have made up the shortfall by using their reserve stocks but they are now expected to become a significant importer.

    "Imports of wheat to China are currently dominated by the State organisation, COFCO, but the milling industry is keen to gain a good understanding of the capabilities of UK wheat for their bread and biscuit markets," said Andrew Flux. "Since China's accession to the WTO, possibilities of exporting UK wheat to China have increased. The bread-baking workshop will ensure that when China is ready to source UK wheat they know the varieties will suit their needs

    #2
    You have asked the million dollar question. The potential for a trade war between the US and China looms. On the other hand (don't you wish you could cut an economists on hand off), Chinese grain inventories have been drawn down to the point their internal prices are getting very high. Lots of thinking that China will be a major wheat importer over the next two years and mostly withdraw from the world corn export market.

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      #3
      Ianben;

      I see this on DTN:

      China Slams US Trade Sanctions
      11/26 06:07
      SHANGHAI, China (AP) -- China angrily rejected U.S. antidumping measures on Chinese television imports, as an increasingly rancorous trade dispute threatened Wednesday to mar a visit by China's premier next month to Washington.

      The U.S. measures announced Monday come amid clashes over textiles, steel and soybeans. Many in China believe that furniture may be the next export drawn into the dispute.

      I understand the US is mad the Chinese have locked in the exchange rate with the US$, so as the US$ depreciates, the Chinese products become cheaper and cheaper...

      Good question on where this will all end up!

      Is this the 1930's all over again?

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