Durum Prices In The Shitter ...... AGAIN!!!

[farming101]

"Just nod if you can hear me,
Is there anyone at home?"
Couldn't resist that reply.....

Old crop has been going out for about 350 so far for 2017 according to CITD
Predominantly #3 with product sold by specification second largest
Funny CGC says #4 and #5 stuff is received at the export terminals but it is never recorded as sold by those grades
Canada asking prices comparable to US prices.
US posted prices were much higher in August but they never recorded any sales at those levels

[farmaholic]

Thanks for the appropriate reply 101. :-)

Interesting stats regarding grades unloaded at port but no sales of such recorded.

[bigzee]

It just amazes me how bad prices are on a drought year! But, grain companies and traders have come up with the idea the crop came in above expectations. Talked with a farmer from ND, yields there were 12-20. Also said not for one minute believe anything from any source that it was higher than that.
Guess in Canada yields were average to above to have these prices doing what they are doing.
Guess 20 bu and lower floods the market. But trade will say those are minuscule areas compared to the bin busting areas.
We all know we wil have to open the bins and give some away to bills.

[bucket]

I thought with empty elevators they would increase prices.....but no....they fill an elevator and let it sit plugged them off up specials 2 hours away .....


As an example local grain company is plugged but sent out a text there is a special in swift current....

You know the cars could be loaded locally and they end up going by swift current to the same port destination.....seems stupid....

[bigzee]

Lol ya the good ol .25 special on limited tonnage.
What a fracking joke!!

[Agvocate]

Being outside the durum area perhaps I am missing something but it seems reasonable you could sell between $7.00 to $7.50 and more if you want to haul to CERES. Spring wheat is low $6.00 area and if you have no protein it's a buck or more below that. I am going to assume the cost of production is pretty similar between spring wheat and durum. Also read Kostal's report saying North African tenders are working back to a $6.00 nominal SK value. Call me crazy but seems like durum is a sale at those values. Pretty sure if spring wheat was $7.00 guys would be lining up to sell it. Maybe I don't understand it, but if feels like there is more an emotional reaction to not getting this summer's prices than looking at what is the better ROI for the farm currently?

[biglentil]

One dollar of spread is not enough risk to warrant growing durum IMO. 1 in 5 years durum goes #1 rest of the time fusarium makes it go sample. Never had my HRS grade worse than a #2.

Then when we finally get a #1 buyers dont want to pay a premium over a #3. Plenty of evidence our grading system is f'd.

[bigzee]

There is no comparison beteeen wheat and durum, the two markets are totally different. The entire world can grow wheat, durum is a small market. The non traditional areas have tried to grow durum and ended up with low poor quality stuff. Durum is a long season crop, even on a normal can take time to mature.
You might think $7-7.50 is decent return, but with a small crop here in Canada and the US prices should be better in a smaller market. Acres and production were way down in Canada, yes there was some durum left for the 16 crop, but most of that had high fuzz and was very low quality. Yes, some may have been a 3 or 4, but prices should be better today for high quality. I guess what we have the buyers don't want. Millers have found out they can substitute crappy stuff for high quality.
If we had crap again this yr they would want what we have this yr. It's just a marry go round circus.

[Agvocate]

Fair enough on the market being completely different and fully understand the risk if 4 of 5 years grades are poor you would be looking for a bigger premium. Historically over a 5 or 10 year period what is the average spread? I can also understand though if the majority of the crop is higher grades this year, which according to the CGC harvest survey program it is, why there is little spread in the grades. That is just economics.

Only other comment would be that if you are truly getting poor quality 4 years out of 5, why grow any of it at all? Long term are you not more profitable to grow CWRS? Or is it just the lottery ticket crop b/c every now and then it goes to $12/bu?

[sumdumguy]

We got $7.40/ bus for #2 Durum in 1973, this is 2017, isn't it? That's 44 years. What a crime!