Durum Prices In The Shitter ...... AGAIN!!!

[bigzee]

Lol ya the good ol .25 special on limited tonnage.
What a fracking joke!!

[Agvocate]

Being outside the durum area perhaps I am missing something but it seems reasonable you could sell between $7.00 to $7.50 and more if you want to haul to CERES. Spring wheat is low $6.00 area and if you have no protein it's a buck or more below that. I am going to assume the cost of production is pretty similar between spring wheat and durum. Also read Kostal's report saying North African tenders are working back to a $6.00 nominal SK value. Call me crazy but seems like durum is a sale at those values. Pretty sure if spring wheat was $7.00 guys would be lining up to sell it. Maybe I don't understand it, but if feels like there is more an emotional reaction to not getting this summer's prices than looking at what is the better ROI for the farm currently?

[biglentil]

One dollar of spread is not enough risk to warrant growing durum IMO. 1 in 5 years durum goes #1 rest of the time fusarium makes it go sample. Never had my HRS grade worse than a #2.

Then when we finally get a #1 buyers dont want to pay a premium over a #3. Plenty of evidence our grading system is f'd.

[bigzee]

There is no comparison beteeen wheat and durum, the two markets are totally different. The entire world can grow wheat, durum is a small market. The non traditional areas have tried to grow durum and ended up with low poor quality stuff. Durum is a long season crop, even on a normal can take time to mature.
You might think $7-7.50 is decent return, but with a small crop here in Canada and the US prices should be better in a smaller market. Acres and production were way down in Canada, yes there was some durum left for the 16 crop, but most of that had high fuzz and was very low quality. Yes, some may have been a 3 or 4, but prices should be better today for high quality. I guess what we have the buyers don't want. Millers have found out they can substitute crappy stuff for high quality.
If we had crap again this yr they would want what we have this yr. It's just a marry go round circus.

[Agvocate]

Fair enough on the market being completely different and fully understand the risk if 4 of 5 years grades are poor you would be looking for a bigger premium. Historically over a 5 or 10 year period what is the average spread? I can also understand though if the majority of the crop is higher grades this year, which according to the CGC harvest survey program it is, why there is little spread in the grades. That is just economics.

Only other comment would be that if you are truly getting poor quality 4 years out of 5, why grow any of it at all? Long term are you not more profitable to grow CWRS? Or is it just the lottery ticket crop b/c every now and then it goes to $12/bu?

[sumdumguy]

We got $7.40/ bus for #2 Durum in 1973, this is 2017, isn't it? That's 44 years. What a crime!

[bucket]

Went to the dollar converter 7.40 in 1973 is 40 bucks today....

[Kinger]

Majority of durum growers this year got an extra 5bu/ac in yield over what they were expecting.

More yield reduces target prices.

Reason it keeps dropping is because farmers are selling at those prices. Not every farmer in Canada thinks durum is gonna be $10/bu and before it get's to $10 a lot more are gonna sell there durum.

Graincos will lower the price until farmers stop selling.

Your not fighting the grainco your fighting the guy who got more yield and thus can afford to sell at a lower price.

South Sask low yields high price targets
North Sask high yields low price targets

I'm probably oversimplifying it or just wrong. 50/50

[sumdumguy]

But Kinger, I didn't think the Durum growing area goes much north of # 1 highway?

[Guest]

But Kinger, I didn't think the Durum growing area goes much north of # 1 highway?

it doesn't

[dave4441]

But Kinger, I didn't think the Durum growing area goes much north of # 1 highway?

There is tons of durum north to Kindersley and Rosetown (150-200 KMS north of #1). Our farm is a 100 KMS north of #1 and I don't recall our farm ever growing HRS. It's that or canary.

[farmaholic]

I think we need to pick soil zones as the boundaries to grow durum. Brown is good, dark brown is good,. moist dark brown is borderline, anything black...is a gamble.

I also think the gamble in all the soil zones now is fusarium...its everywhere and if conditions are right you will end up with crap because it seems so susceptible....but you can app fungicides twice ;-).

Obviously this year would have been a safe year to grow it in areas with a lack of moisture during heading and early flowering....hindsight! Fusarium grading tolerances need to be relaxed....don't let a perfect year for growing durum lull you into a false sense of security that that ugly grading factor is waiting to kick you in the nuts again....and then there's vomitoxin....the non-grading factor.