Durum Prices In The Shitter ...... AGAIN!!!

[Kinger]

Durum will be grown where ever guys think it will make money.

They saw the decent prices and good yields last year and so more guys switched from red spring to durum. Red spring prices last year didn't help that either.

In order for durum to get above $10/bu you'd need to see all of those guys switch back to red spring.

Only reason is if the return on durum gets low enough or red spring return gets good enough.

Only way to increase price is either reduce supply or raise demand.

[farming101]

Ya its all good. Adequate supplies

Last year way over a million tonnes more than usual wound up in the feed bunk
Likely some of the carryover is similar quantity.
Exports are 57% higher than last year at this time. Domestic disappearance way up over last year. Production 50% of last year(that will likely be raised in future estimates). Should be headed for a very low carryout number.

[Kinger]

If low carryout results in a rise of before seeding prices. Acres on durum go up. Depending on the growing season. Not likely gonna do prices any big favors.

If every other farmer starts growing a new crop because the price was good. That commodities price will adjust to the increase in supply.

Manitoba will be seeing this with soybean basis soon.

Durum it's already happening.

[farming101]

Durum might have competition from HRS in flex areas next year