Alternative thought on canola market

[Klause]

The Canadian dollar had lost 5% recently. The canola market futures have only gained about 3%..


Canola has room to move another 2% BUT crush margins are getting thin...

[Kinger]

Canola is hitting the $500/mt psychological resistance right now. That with very high levels of crush and farmer selling are holding it back.

Likely will hang around $500 for a few days then do something.

If beans get the correction i'm thinking they will canola will be getting pull back under $500 for a while.

[fjlip]

Crushers very busy, supply locked up for months, why pay up, check after new year...

[Bowerpower]

Canola will be range bound for awhile. It will follow beans. So S America will be the factor and perhaps needs a may seeding scare here to really ignite a meaningful rally. there is carry in market.

[farming101]

I'm looking at different percentages since the Sept 8 dollar high but yes percentage changes see canola increases lagging the dollar decline.
Seasonally the CAD retreats in the Nov-Dec months. Rarely are there large gains in canola when yearend is nearing. You are likely correct in hoping for a small increase.

RSF18 has a short term buy signal in place. A close this week above 503.10 would show further strength with a close above 506.70 bullish.

Bower's point about longer term SA influence is valid. US soybean exports are off to a great start but outstanding sales are a lot lower than last year.

By now there has already been 4 MMT delivered this crop year. Almost as much as wheat and durum combined. No hiccups allowed.

[Bowerpower]

What would it take to get canola to break free from soybean influence.
Crushers running on fumes, China demand picks up, 2018 production problems? Or do we need all three?

[Oliver88]

What would it take to get canola to break free from soybean influence.
Crushers running on fumes, China demand picks up, 2018 production problems? Or do we need all three?

CDN $
Road bans
Lack of farmer selling

This happens every year.

[Agvocate]

Need oilshare to go on a run. Canola has double the oil that beans do, if oil is the price driver, canola can de-couple and lead the market. If protein is the the driver beans will be stronger.

[HappyFarmer]

I'm looking at different percentages since the Sept 8 dollar high but yes percentage changes see canola increases lagging the dollar decline.
Seasonally the CAD retreats in the Nov-Dec months. Rarely are there large gains in canola when yearend is nearing. You are likely correct in hoping for a small increase.

RSF18 has a short term buy signal in place. A close this week above 503.10 would show further strength with a close above 506.70 bullish.

Bower's point about longer term SA influence is valid. US soybean exports are off to a great start but outstanding sales are a lot lower than last year.

By now there has already been 4 MMT delivered this crop year. Almost as much as wheat and durum combined. No hiccups allowed.

Crushers sniffing around today for canola at 10 under Jan, Dec delivery. Even sounds like 5 under Jan, Jan delivery would likely get taken.

There is no more of a bullish signal that basis improving and futures increasing at the same time.

I won't disagree with the bean comments but the end of the day beans will be beans and canola will be canola. Eventually fundamentals rule for each.