Major Miss: Cdn Retail Sales

[errolanderson]

http://www.bnn.ca/loonie-slides-as-retail-sales-unexpectedly-fall-0-3-in-august-1.890697

Economic reality now kicking in . . . August Cdn retail sales were a dismal -0.3%. Loonie under heavy selling pressure this morning.

Chances of further Bank of Canada rate hikes in 2017 dimmed considerably . . . .

[bucket]

Well maybe they should raise rates again....or make it harder to buy a house.....maybe they don't understand the correlation to their policies.....

[errolanderson]

Well maybe they should raise rates again....or make it harder to buy a house.....maybe they don't understand the correlation to their policies.....

bucket, loonie fallout is good news for canola and cattle prices, etc . . . .

[bucket]

Interesting factoid while it maybe good for canola and cattle prices.....it usually means a price increase on every thing I buy and those prices never fluctuate with grain or cattle prices....


Canola could go to 16 dollars and then back down. ....a combine baler tractor never seems to track that...nor does milk or bread....


If it did from the 70s we would have 25 dollar wheat and the like.

[farming101]

CAD target .7834

[mcfarms]

Some earlier locked in decent basis canola contracts should be hitting in the 11.40 plus range this morning for those that have them.

[errolanderson]

Cdn consumers have very little tolerance to interest rate hikes that quickly disrupt spending patterns. This appears to be unknown to the Bank of Canada.

Record-breaking consumer debt overhangs real economic growth beyond current out-of-control Federal government deficit spending (IMO).

Agree, further potential weakness in the loonie ahead . . . .

[sumdumguy]

Governments use monetary policy which includes interest rate adjustments to control inflation. Another tool would be shrinking the money supply by various means. What do you prefer Errol?

[Rareearth]

Correction 101
Target is .60

[Klause]

None of the media is reporting the pull back.... Just make fake reference to the "red hot" economy first half of the year.... The collapse of Canada's economy is coming closer... And it will be epic

[macdon02]

It's almost like this is an economic crash..... yet not a market crash......

[errolanderson]

Governments use monetary policy which includes interest rate adjustments to control inflation. Another tool would be shrinking the money supply by various means. What do you prefer Errol?

To me, inflation is not a problem central banks need to battle. Disinflation or flat-out deflation is their risk. Central bankers have no tools to fight deflation. Even Janet Yellen recently stated that it is a mystery that there is no inflation. To me, that is a scary comment from the Fed chair. That means the power of central power manipulation in equity markets is now in-decline and central bank policy is failing. Global commodity markets continue to battle deflation, which is highlighted by gold's inability to maintain any strength beyond temporary geopolitical investor fear.

In my opinion, run-away gov't spending and record consumer debt is why there is no inflation. Central bankers need not increase rates to control this fantom issue. Toronto and Vancouver real estate has been driven by outside money (IMO). These are not Cdn made property gains in Canada's two largest cities. These markets are now in gradual decline.

Canada's impressive 3rd quarter 4.5% GDP has been driven by excessive gov't deficit spending, not by real recovery across western Canada. To me, Canada's economy is now weakening into the 4th quarter and will continue to struggle into 2018.

Today's negative retail sales data shows how just a small rate hikes cut into consumer disposable income. Two Bank of Canada rate hikes totalling just 1/2% effectively decreases consumer spending by nearly 6%.

[Rareearth]

Interest rate hikes all in a effort to cool housing in Toronto and Vancouver.

Result, kill consumer confidence and jobs.

Brilliant, just brilliant

[tweety]

bucket, loonie fallout is good news for canola and cattle prices, etc . . . .

But the shits for going to Arizona, or Hawaii, or Vegas, or...

[farmaholic]

But the shits for going to Arizona, or Hawaii, or Vegas, or...

The seasoned travelers have their cash converted ....