One Major Shock Event Away . . . .

[danny W1M]

maybe it's, A I robots

[ajl]

Payrolls released at 261,000 this morning was actually quite disappointing, Some pre-estimates forecasting 350,000 to 400,000. U.S. labor workforce is now at a 40 year low around 61.5% participation.

Real unemployed numbers do not match gov't numbers (IMO). It depends on how you define unemployment in a shrinking workforce.

Neither is workforce participation a relevant figure. The most of the mid 1960's had high real growth, non existent inflation and a workforce participation similar to today. In the 1960's women were raising kids. Starting in the 70's they took on government jobs leading to the mess we are in today. Generated high workforce participation numbers for a while.

[errolanderson]

Neither is workforce participation a relevant figure. The most of the mid 1960's had high real growth, non existent inflation and a workforce participation similar to today. In the 1960's women were raising kids. Starting in the 70's they took on government jobs leading to the mess we are in today. Generated high workforce participation numbers for a while.

Maybe U.S. unemployment will have a 3 in front of it ahead. Stock markets will love this news. But it changes nothing to bubble asset market risk with a spiralling debt crisis in-progress.

[sumdumguy]

Here are some economic debt figures that may help put the overall U.S. debt picture in perspective.
One major shock event could now quickly tip-over this debt-mired applecart (IMO). 

U.S. National Debt: $20.37 trillion

U.S. GDP: $19.35 trillion

U.S. Federal Spending: $4 trillion

U.S. Federal Revenue: $3.32 trillion 

U.S. Federal Budget Deficit: $690 billion 

Private Credit Card Debt: $1.021 trillion

Private Student Loan Debt: $1.47 trillion

Private Mortgage Debt: $14.755 trillion

Total Private Personal Debt: $18.54 trillion

U.S. Total Debt: $67.92 trillion

U.S. Unfunded Liabilities: $107.78 trillion

Liabilities Per Taxpayer: $893,304

Savings per Family: $6,060

Personal Debt per Citizen: $56,867

The underlying figures show that the U.S. and Citizens are more indebted now than they have ever been in history.

Data courtesy of Kim Eisberg, independent financial economist, Palm Beach, Florida



US unemployment rate 4.1%, lowest since 2010.

[errolanderson]

US unemployment rate 4.1%, lowest since 2010.

U.S. unemployment at 4.1%, but no wage growth. An observation . . . .

[Rareearth]

Perhaps our best hedge would be to buy the VIX, go long?

What would all this cost, Risk reward? It would be Insurance, could it be cheaper than buying interest rate swaps?

Can you put the numbers out there Error,
What would $50,000 gross dollars invested buy for one year, two years, or longer (don’t know how far into the future they go). Can you buy options or just futures?

I don’t do any trading, busy enough already I guess.

[bobofthenorth]

Perhaps our best hedge would be to buy the VIX, go long?

As ever its all about the timing. I bought ProShares UVXY mid summer. Clearly I bought too soon but I can hold and wait it out. I also bought some VIX Jan calls. No doubt they'll expire worthless. Won't be the first time.