Can Canadian Ag Survive a Down Turn!

[SASKFARMER3]

ok sk wheat king.

Explain the land drop in the 80s yes high interest rates but the price sky rocketed and their was no end in sight the USA and others stated to subsidize canada did shit all and interest went through the roof.

Boom implosion.

Gary sold half the business so he's out.

Jimmy is learning the car business and ag are two different kettles.

Now yes its awesome to sit and look at your value of land and think wow thats a nice number.

But where does buying at the price were reaching make any sence. Explain. Other than buy each year to keep what you have worth more. ITs a pyramid.

But lets look at world ag.

Canada isn't the end all be all. Other places produce way than us and when they get things figured out look out.

but explain why you see it keep going up.

I dont.

[SASKFARMER3]

tubs i know what you mean when i got really winding up and going like a idiot on buying land was after the 80s before that i tried to buy and farmed with my dad. we had a good base so purchasing extra didn't really happen unless the perfect patch showed up. Then the last Christmas before the big crash and i almost almost bought 7 at the peak. Didn't and own now three of them plus a few others.

ITs like investing and selling canola some hit the top some wait and sell at the bottom.

Yes you only hit three maybe in a life time of excellence.

Im not advocating a collapse but study whats going on and some one please explain how why or not im wrong.

Its rather simple explain why it just has to go up with all the shit happening world wide in ag.

Remember we heard it before the world is running out of food.

[farmaholic]

....you can't spend the money your land is worth unless you sell it or borrow against it!!!!! So unless your selling or borrowing against it, does it really matter what it's "worth"? But it sure does when you're buying it!

[SASKFARMER3]

Land is yes a asset.

So if land drops like every time in Canadaina History since it was settled.

the 550 now should be at 300 and then slowly climb again.

The 300 now should be at 220 and climb.

The 160 now will drop to 75 and then climb.

Similar in 80s took almost 20 years because we lost lots of great farms in the 80s that make todays BTOS look like chump change.

Im not hoping for a crash but if i need one clear to buy in future doesn't matter if its 500 or 200.

If your selling and need a out awesome time to do it. Hell why not doesn't take a brain surgeon to realize its time.

But if your a hold and wait it just might be getting close.

Now if this all does implode borrowing will not happen like in past and maybe new ways of lending will come forth.

Just saying history does repeat.

[sk_wheatking]

I know sf3 land goes up and down in price. But why some people hope for a land crash is beyond me. It will go down or maybe go up or maybe stay the same. Who knows. I don't really care what land prices are right now I'm not buying or selling. I may be reading your responses the wrong way because things get lost in translation of emotions in print easily so excuse me if I'm wrong but you really get upset if someone posts something you don't agree with. I get it you want 50,000 a quarter land for various reasons. Just remember if land prices tank so will everything else. It's relativity. I'm sorry you can't accept friendly debate. I've been on your side on most issues anyway.

[farmaholic]

Sk-wheat....I've been wrong for the last 3 to 5 years but I have a hard time believing it can sustain the growth rates of the last while. In fact I think it is kind of over valued now. I don't know what will happen. But I would bet if it does correct it will stay down for a "period"(you define your own timeframe) but will recover and maybe surpass current values if the economics of farming drive it there. Speculation was responsible for much of the appreciation in this area. Tenants don't have to make it worth while for investors to own land!

Sask's suppressed land(Gov ownership policy) prices were the perfect environment for some investors to do very well....the party just might be over.

[SASKFARMER3]

No this isn't about me.

Its about what i see world wide in ag with our competitors and whats going on in Crazy Sask.

We grow one crop a year nothing grows in snow at least i haven't found that yet.

Yes ill buy when our land locally gets back to 200 or less because you can make money at over 328 and up to 428 sorry no it doesn't and thats what i was showing.

But if a crash does happen the banks won't borrow hell they will have other problems to worry about land. So new ways maybe like Brazil will happen barter system. I dont know.

just stirring the pot.

I wish some one would give me a reason why the high prices on every thing from seed to equipment to land has to continue to rise.

Just one reason.

[Kinger]

Land won't go down until farm profitability takes a pretty severe nose dive. Yeah this year wasn't great for some but the last 10 years have been far and above the best in farming.

Likely will be a minor correction but won't be a doom and gloom scenario.

Or i'm totally wrong and see a new depression hit. 50/50 either way.

[sk_wheatking]

No this isn't about me.

Its about what i see world wide in ag with our competitors and whats going on in Crazy Sask.

We grow one crop a year nothing grows in snow at least i haven't found that yet.

Yes ill buy when our land locally gets back to 200 or less because you can make money at over 328 and up to 428 sorry no it doesn't and thats what i was showing.

But if a crash does happen the banks won't borrow hell they will have other problems to worry about land. So new ways maybe like Brazil will happen barter system. I dont know.

just stirring the pot.

I wish some one would give me a reason why the high prices on every thing from seed to equipment to land has to continue to rise.

Just one reason.

Because it can.

[SASKFARMER3]

Thats not a answer it can go down is lots of examples through out history.
Since the great crash to weather.

Why is Canada a one crop country seeing huge price increase in land vs double crop areas. What makes our dirt better. And were land locked.

Not because it can.

Hell every thing goes up eventually goes down.


Argue the facts why does it continue to go up why.

Housing did and then flat to dropping now.

Condos a whole different ball park.

I personally don't think Canadian farmers are as well off as some think they are.