Can Canadian Ag Survive a Down Turn!

[bucket]

In 2007 I was talking to a guy that couldn't rent his farm ....he had to pay someone to keep it in shape....wasn't in my area....

That doesn't seem that long ago..

[tweety]

Land is yes a asset.

So if land drops like every time in Canadaina History since it was settled.

For a very short time it may have - but land has never dropped over the term that matters, and it never will.

Agriculture is flush with cash, bursting at the seams with income to spend on all that extremely over sized ridiculously priced equipment that lasts even less hours then it did 20 years ago.

[MBgrower]

the ones who will be in trouble when the down turn begins (and yes it will return it always does) are the ones farming and spending based on the boom prices and yields we've seen from 2008 till now. I've farmed long enough to know that we will see a cycle of 5, maybe 10 years of poor prices, and bad weather or a comb of both. the young btos will have to learn some hard lessons.

[tmyrfield]

I wish some one would give me a reason why the high prices on every thing from seed to equipment to land has to continue to rise.

Just one reason. Reply With Quote

The simple reason is...we won't let it.
Quarter section comes up for sale next door and before you know it bids are coming in fast and furious can't pay too much for land.
The guy who ends up with it now needs a new combine, maybe a new drill to. quick, to the dealers to make a deposit before production is all booked up.
Phone input dealer to book more fertilizer and canola seed, before it to goes up or runs out.
Now take a few pictures of everything all shiny and new and put it on social media.
what a hero.
Government bureaucrats and statisticians look at these nice pictures of the new equipment then read the comments on how we needed a new combine to harvest our 58.6 bu canola crop.
They start thinking that gee farmers are doing very well...new equipment, big yields etc. but statscan never asks how much money we owe just how much grain and assets we got.
Justin wants to show the world what a wonderful guy he is so starts making it rain for every left wing wet dream there is.
All of a sudden money man says we need more more more.....guess where it comes from? Doctors Farmers, Mom and pop businesses. income taxes, capital gains taxes carbon taxes, cpp taxes.inheritance taxes and on and on and on.
Its not going to stop till we can't borrow another single fracking penny...like it or not.

[bucket]

At current levels my farm would be worth more than I would have hoped to win on a lottery not too long ago....I really don't know what's wrong with me.....but if I wanted my kids to farm my lottery win would vanish.....lol.

[Flatlander]

Les Henry's land chart and the dot com stocks of late 1999 early 2000 have in common, that "blow off top" look to them if your asking me. Lift off is now vertical. Look ou below. Keep some of your powder dry, deals ahead. What goes around comes around. But if that certain piece of dirt comes up you have been waiting for you know what you have to do. Right?

[Bowerpower]

Buy buy buy...... As much as you can being comfortable in making the payments. Ask yourself this. Have you ever regretted buying land. I would prefer lower prices. I'm younger, want to build more acres. Land is necessary to farm. Priority one is having a land base to pass down to the next generation. Keep building it up. Land may plateau maybe even go down. I hope so, than l will buy more. Trouble is will what I want be available than. Who knows. Have no intention of ever selling. Pay for it once and move on.

[farmaholic]

For a very short time it may have - but land has never dropped over the term that matters, and it never will.

Agriculture is flush with cash, bursting at the seams with income to spend on all that extremely over sized ridiculously priced equipment that lasts even less hours then it did 20 years ago.

I bought dirt in 1986 for 64K.....the last land I bought in 2014......wait for it......65K.....thats a 28 year spread for ****'s sake.....and there was a time in there I wouldn't have got what I paid in 86.....too long a spread I might add. But it was never for sale so it didn't matter to ME. To some people it did.

Oh yea ....in 1986(the private sale) the same songs were sung about the land being too expensive as in 2014 at the land "auction" of the local BTO at the time.......

I had no competition in 86 but 2014 was one of those huge Hodgin's land auction cluster****s......anyone attend one of those? I stuck to the package I originally went for and was never "on" for more land than I wanted after someone else's bidding changed who was on what without someone who was out(all together or on certain parcels) actually placing another bid. The problems arose if someone bid on a bunch of different land and got out bid....then with all the combinations and.possibilities could end up getting more than he wanted. The breaking up of bidders packages or blocks caused the trouble. It was a gongshow!

[Partners]

Similar..1982 paid 100k for a 1/4...In 2012 paid a 100K for a similar 1/4...

Lately going around 300 k in this area...some even way higher...

[bucket]

Maybe some people are not seeing that grain is the same price as it was years ago....the math isn't making sense.....if it was keeping pace we would be getting 20 bucks a bushel for wheat 30 for canola and 45 for lentils....