This peas and lentil thing is upsetting. WTF will farmers grow in 2018. Canola at $8

[SASKFARMER3]

A Global Glut of Peas And Lentils Is Bringing Big Farm Losses.

Lentils and peas are having a big impact on the declining profitability of some Canadian farmers and food makers, says a post from Bloomberg.
Not only have lentil prices tumbled more than 30 percent in the past year, but the largest consumer, India, had bumper harvests and is trying to unload its surplus inventory. Exports of so-called pulse crops by Canada, the top grower and shipper, are down by about half. Regina, Saskatchewan-based AGT Food & Ingredients Inc., a big seller of pulses, has reported four straight quarters of losses and its shares are down 46 percent in 2017.
It’s hard to get somebody willing to buy right now,” said Saskatchewan farmer Brad Blackwell, who seeded one third of his 8,000 acres with red lentils this year. “Prices are quite dismal.”
The outlook has gone from bad to worse, disrupting a business that was enjoying the highest prices ever as recently as early 2016. Since then, farmers have expanded production, creating a global glut. In Canada alone, the number of acres devoted to lentils jumped 62 percent from four years earlier while pea plantings climbed 23 percent, government data show.Complicating the outlook are new Indian penalties on Canadian shipments, ending an earlier waiver that exempted them from having to fumigate dried peas and lentils.

Farmers in Saskatchewan are being offered about 19 Canadian cents a pound for red lentils, down from more than 30 Canadian cents a year earlier, Blackwell said. As a result, the return for growers on pulses are no longer as attractive as grains or oilseeds, Clancey said.
In the meantime, some farmers are relying on other crops, including wheat and canola, to pay the bills. Blackwell, the Saskatchewan grower, says he will hold onto his lentils for awhile to see if prices recover, but probably will plant less of it next year because returns are so lousy.

“I’ll wait til the new year and see where the market goes,” Blackwell said. “Demand worldwide is down.”

Ok so we lost wheat due to greedy elevator companies selling wheat at coast on world market grade 3 at 11% protein. But play a grade game in country that its a 1 and huge discounts.

This is a ass backwards system. We need contracts that are a base grade and premiums are paid up from their. Its simple if the companies offered 4 for fall as a base grade acreage would be adjusted from their if you wanted to take a chance you grow it if not wheat dies.

Then the peas are the second shot across the farm bow. 50% tariff and price is below 6 now to any one who has peas left. Bang that door is shutting.

Then the lentils get hit with a boom as similar 34 cents a lb now becomes 19 or less and watch companies renege on contracts. ( Oh say it cant happen, I laugh and laugh and laugh).

Then what we will all grow Wall to wall canola next year and Soy. Wow thats a winner. Can you say 8 or less. Its going to happen.

AG more than ever is a great saying but when you have a brain damaged federal leader that cares more about returning ISSIS fighters and making them feel the love. Get these trade deals in place. DAH.

Grain is quickly becoming the next Canadian economic hit after Oil and Lumber its now Grain. BOOM!

[the big wheel]

Agree with most of that where are our local mps though? Have we heard a word from rural mps or mlas for that matter.

All conservative and sask party all we hear is the poor oil deals not going through. And they should but they do nothing for us farmers whereas all those things you mentioned including the total disaster of having no plan other than leaving it to big companies to do what they want after the wheat board which was useless but did at least pose some resistance to this horse shit that's a run away train.

Where are our check off dollars? No point growing these good crops if no where to sell them.

[SASKFARMER3]

Ok big wheel i do agree with you on this topic also.

All candidates especially Alana would be saying we have some serious shit happening in ag and need some real leadership.

Carbon tax will kill ag its a given. Every thing will go up those like chuck that think it won't are sniffing glue.

So yea the NDP leadership hopefuls are no better. But the new Pot law will help them get more voters.

So yea maybe it is time we all start to ask where is our true leadership. Provincial and Federal and even Municipal.
The useless marketing boards are all about trade missions that are really holidays.

Sorry get your shit together boys and girls.

[dave4441]

Red lentils have been dropping in price since Dec 2015. You can sell lentils and peas today just not at prices that people are happy with. If you look at a price chart of both reds and peas these prices where with us in 2010 thru 2013. It will go back up but will take some time. Grower Associations do not have a place in telling you to lock in profitable prices which have been available in these markets for a long time. Sometimes we need to be accountable for our own decisions.

The Indian issue is about oversupply. Nothing more and nothing less. We were not shipping any quantity of product to them anyways. Markets reacted viscerally to the duty because the reality is we have to compete against the lower priced Russian/Ukraine product and we simply were not. India will import both from Canada irregardless of the duty at some point.

Grower Assn, MLAs and MPs cant do much about this. Hopefully we can get some changes on the fumigation issue with policy but this has to be recognized for what it is. Oversupply.

[bucket]

The problem is we don't have parts and machinery prices going down....how does it make sense to continue to raise the price on everything coming onto the farm and lower it going off....do processors lower their tariffs to clean and bag?


Farmers are not getting more when you factor in inflation. ...my dad could buy a halfton with a three ton load of grain at one time.....couldn't do that today with 6 super b loads of the same grain. ...

[the big wheel]

Your so *** full of shit Dve people need to start boycotting the assholes that have that attitude that nothing can be done. We can start by having you open up your books and not the secondary books but the real books on what prices buyers are getting.

You d have to be cracked up to not think the people that make trade deals etc don't have a say in this.

We re sending aid to India every year cut that shit off right now. Etc etc.
It wouldn't be very hard except politicians listen to the c suckers like you. Thats our biggest problem. You can't fail in the eyes of politicians but farmers can thats the mentality.

[dave4441]

The problem is we don't have parts and machinery prices going down....how does it make sense to continue to raise the price on everything coming onto the farm and lower it going off....do processors lower their tariffs to clean and bag?


Farmers are not getting more when you factor in inflation. ...my dad could buy a halfton with a three ton load of grain at one time.....couldn't do that today with 6 super b loads of the same grain. ...

I agree, just doesn't change anything. And yes, margins are crazy small in special crop business. The best thing for our business is high prices. And for our customers overseas. No one in the chain is enjoying this.

Buyer's like firm to rising prices. Contrary to popular belief.

[SASKFARMER3]

Dave i like your explanation, But yes our growers associations need to become real spokes people for us its not about holidays and bullshit meetings all over the place. Its about finally doing something useful. Im getting tired of sending them cash and now cant even ask for it back when im pissed at how they handle stuff.

MLAs and MPS need to look at ag in the big picture and get it turning in a new direction. Brother in-law just back form Germany and friends sending whats happening in South America and all i can see is Canada is failing.

Then throw in a Pm who cares about selfies and socks and reality hits were in big trouble.

[dave4441]

Your so *** full of shit Dve people need to start boycotting the assholes that have that attitude that nothing can be done. We can start by having you open up your books and not the secondary books but the real books on what prices buyers are getting.

You d have to be cracked up to not think the people that make trade deals etc don't have a say in this.

We re sending aid to India every year cut that shit off right now. Etc etc.
It wouldn't be very hard except politicians listen to the c suckers like you. Thats our biggest problem. You can't fail in the eyes of politicians but farmers can thats the mentality.

What would you suggest people do about oversupply? Time is the only answer. We have been here before. 8 cents large green lentils in 2005 was brutal. But the supply got worked through.

What would a trade deal do? Would it stop the bankruptcies of importers in India?? Would a trade deal stop the farmers in India from having a good crop. That's the reality, this is about high production in India as well as Africa, Australia, etc. If they needed the product the duty and/or fumigation issue would not be present. Don't let anyone tell you any different. This has been coming for long time.

You can stick your head in the sand big wheel and claim people have second sets of books all you want but you are just talking bullshit. I suspect you are long and wrong as a trader (suspect lentils at this time) and not likely even a farmer. I assume you used to trade canary into Mexico and the phyto change has knocked you out of the market. Am i right?

[SASKFARMER3]

Well said big wheel

[SASKFARMER3]

Oh dave you worry about the bankruptcies in India how about Canadian Farmers Going under.

Todays prices for the next few years and a Pm that could give a rats ass about us will create that.

Hows your day going.

[the big wheel]

Wrong on all counts Dave.

There s lots that can be done but you who the politicians listen to are turning this around that it's our fault which honestly I hope people look at who you are and act accordingly.
There is a disconnect between buyers serving us and dictating to us because you have been given that power by politicians that needs to change.

Yellow peas prior to tarriff was 7 to 8 usually 7.50. So slap 50% tarriff means that those peas would only be bringing back half of 7.50 or 3.75 which means that because peas are now 6 dollars somebody was getting 6 dollars minus 3.75 = 2.25 plus 7.50 is 9.75. Who here sold peas for 9.75??
And on top of that we had to beg to move anything at 7.50 and now at 6 can sell it any day any where any time. All day every day?????

[wmoebis]

Can anyone explain why the check off $ aren't set as a % of net return on producers check instead of $/ tonne.
That way prod groups would be more focused on producer returns rather than increased production and gross sales. Although to some degree they are connected.

[dave4441]

Oh dave you worry about the bankruptcies in India how about Canadian Farmers Going under.

Todays prices for the next few years and a Pm that could give a rats ass about us will create that.

Hows your day going.

I never said anything about farmer bankruptcies in Canada. What i said is that people had opportunity to lock in profitable prices this year. People need to look at profit per acre. I would like someone to dispute that thought. You are trying to put words into my mouth.

And yes it matters if Indian companies are bankrupt or you won't have a buyer for vessels of peas. This is important in long run.

You won't fix this thing with government intervention but feel free to hope for that. We have had people use a marketing approach of "wait until the new year, it will get better" for 3 months already. It isnt getting better.

We are at prices now that holding and waiting is likely the best option. In reds anyway. Greens still have some room to come down (Still $18 per bushel)and you can get $7/bu on peas so it's not terrible either.

I have been on this site for 15+ years and it still amazes me how so many people want open markets until the market falls. Then they want government to look after them. We want rid of the CWB (myself included) but want the MLAs and MPs to fix this situation. Its just the reality of supply right now. We want high prices and vibrant industry but no foreign investors. We are happy when fert. comes down but they are gouging us when price goes up. Besides machinery (which we will not be buying this year), our total input costs in upcoming season will be lowest in years and years. That is a positive. I would like to see fert prices go back to the highs. Grain prices were high then as well.

[dave4441]

Wrong on all counts Dave.

There s lots that can be done but you who the politicians listen to are turning this around that it's our fault which honestly I hope people look at who you are and act accordingly.
There is a disconnect between buyers serving us and dictating to us because you have been given that power by politicians that needs to change.

Yellow peas prior to tarriff was 7 to 8 usually 7.50. So slap 50% tarriff means that those peas would only be bringing back half of 7.50 or 3.75 which means that because peas are now 6 dollars somebody was getting 6 dollars minus 3.75 = 2.25 plus 7.50 is 9.75. Who here sold peas for 9.75??
And on top of that we had to beg to move anything at 7.50 and now at 6 can sell it any day any where any time. All day every day?????

We are not late moving peas at all. In fact i think you can still get $7/bu FOB farm on peas. Hasn't changed that much. Peas destined for India where redirected into China by the way. Inventory within india was will have gone up in price. Reality was this impacted alot of Russian peas enroute to India as they were primary seller when this happened anyway.