Canola $510 on farm 2018

[malleefarmer]

As mentioned below $540 port which equates to $510 on farm for me.

Well if you guys had similar price/opportunity in canada would you foward sell 25% of you expected production.

Sometimes i see different marketing mindset than we have in OZ but maybe it because we have had open market longer.

[SASKFARMER3]

Were well over a $1.25 Canadian a bushel less than that dumped in the pit.

[farmaholic]

And how do you know the locked in price will even be profitable when you don't know absolutely for sure what production will be....you may have just locked in a loss if there's a shortfall in world production and prices rally....hopefully making you profitable on less volume.

I never was a fan of selling something I never had.

[Agvocate]

Were well over a $1.25 Canadian a bushel less than that dumped in the pit.

11.57/Bu AUD which is 11.20 CAD. New crop bids here are 10.50 - 10.75 so the $1.25 less isn't really accurate. Somewhere between $.45 and $.70 spread. Given the extra costs in getting seed out of Canada, that seems like it makes sense roughly if you are using delivered China as your benchmark starting point. Given the multiple posts on here of everyone predicting $8 canola because of the pulse tarriff's I have to assume everyone must be selling the shit out of new crop canola at these levels.

[malleefarmer]

And how do you know the locked in price will even be profitable when you don't know absolutely for sure what production will be....you may have just locked in a loss if there's a shortfall in world production and prices rally....hopefully making you profitable on less volume.

I never was a fan of selling something I never had.

hence the 25% farma and you only lock in if it suits your bussiness and if prices are historically in top 10% you look at it.

A few years back i over committed in foward sales due to low production as you mentioned think from memory sold at 290 come harvest was 230 so i just "sold" my contract to a nieghbour for $30 per tonne just split the difference he won and i won

If foward selling doesnt suit you dont do it just another marketing tool

[malleefarmer]

Also grain cos here often let you roll the contract over into next year with small discount

[SASKFARMER3]

Ag thats the easternSask. Elevator bids for next fall.

Crusher is $10.91 delivered to Yorkton etc.

So Yea a 11.00 and i would lock some in.

I know you don't like my comment on $8.00 Canola for next year but if the pea acres move to canola and lentils some move to canola take total acreage and all in trade will be singing happy happy happy Songs as idiot farmers give them what they want wall to wall Canola.

Crash goes the crop.

Ag More than ever in the toilet.

[farmaholic]

..........sounds like a year to stick with the pulses....if no one else is going to grow them.

[Guest]

..........sounds like a year to stick with the pulses....if no one else is going to grow them.

My thoughts exactly !

[Agvocate]

I don't have any issue with the $8 comment. Personally I don't think that is where we are headed. All I am pointing out is, that if you believe that is where it is headed and the current bid is $10.91 why would you hold out for 9 cents and risk $3.00 downside? If we are strictly talking about marketing and managing risk, the risk/reward scenario makes no sense not to sell at the bid now. Not to mention if you put a target in 9 cents above the market it likely gets filled...

[tmyrfield]

There is nothing in the world like combining 85% hailed out canola to fill an $8 contact when prices jumped to $10.

[ajl]

Due to the continuous crazy weather regime in this area, 25% is high risk as you don't know the quality of product harvested. I do agree on pricing something this winter as canola seeding are going up due to nothing else to do around here. Locally the bid is 10.80 for October on canola. Will be watching.