Has the use of "specials" by graincos, altered marketing?

[danny W1M]

Ya sure, there has always been specials, but to me,,,the increased use of specials by graincos is far greater now, than 5 years ago.

To me it seems graincos have moved more to the stick method of bringing in grain, rather than the sugar method.

The stick method being, a wider basis and retaining more of the currency exchange for themselves, until cars are coming and sales contracts need to be filled. Then throw on a "special" that might not even last a day. If you miss it or are away, you're SOL, till the next cycle.

The sugar method being, prices slowly and incrementally increase, till firm hands slowly and incrementally sell. Seldom use of specials, may allow graincos to could get more product for less, but it would be a more gradual less volatile market. Farmers wouldn't be waiting and holding on for specials if they were never used. Would that lead to a more actuate market price?

Goodluck, if you can't wait for specials to come on. Those that can't wait, delay specials for everyone else. Are targets always good? You might have a "target" in, but if the special happens to be $0.25/bus over your target, Your SOL again, because they pay you the target price not the special price.

Just wanted to spur a conversation about what, if anyway, they distort market price(net or farm gate price) or farmer marketing of their grains.

[farmaholic]

****in crazy talk again! Targets are the only way to go. Or dump your grain and buy paper. Assume all the risk of pricing even after its off the farm! Control of the grain means nothing....not worth the headache. Storing grain is too risky...spoilage, bugs, how can you haul it when you're in Phoenix or Texas?

Sugar ain't healthy anyway!

Sorry...some days I just lose control!

[SASKFARMER3]

That’s was funny!

Put a smile on my face as I sit and wait to unload HRS that now even with our yield is not much better than break even. Big bonus is gone but buy fertilizer and seed MR Farmer.

[Klause]

Targets... Where farmers compete with each other to give grain elevators the cheapest grain possible. LOL

[Kinger]

Targets... Where farmers compete with each other to give grain elevators the cheapest grain possible. LOL

Or a way to capture sudden changes in the futures market.

Targets are one of the best tools out there.

Not everyone is available 24/7 so put a target in and see what the futures do. Have a timeline and have a plan if it doesn't get picked in that timeline. Sell at current price, change your targeted price, whatever works for you.

Dismissing every tool you have is naive.

[Klause]

Or a way to capture sudden changes in the futures market.

Targets are one of the best tools out there.

Not everyone is available 24/7 so put a target in and see what the futures do. Have a timeline and have a plan if it doesn't get picked in that timeline. Sell at current price, change your targeted price, whatever works for you.

Dismissing every tool you have is naive.

Thinking it's a tool is naive.


You want to capture swings in futures markets get a comodities trading account and learn to trade futures and options...


Targets tell grain companies producer sentiment and just how cheap they can get your product.

[dave4441]

Thinking it's a tool is naive.


You want to capture swings in futures markets get a comodities trading account and learn to trade futures and options...


Targets tell grain companies producer sentiment and just how cheap they can get your product.

Disagree in futures markets, 100% agree in special crops. Targets allow free options to the trader and ties the product up.

[farmaholic]

..............

They're makin a "list",
They're checkin it twice,
They're gonna find out who's naughty and nice,
Mr. Klause they'll take you down....

.......

Merry Marketing!!!!!

No! No! No!....

[macdon02]

Disagree in futures markets, 100% agree in special crops. Targets allow free options to the trader and ties the product up.

I'm with Dave. We, producers, need a better understanding of futures and we are ignorant to say the least. How da **** do you recognize if you should be holding or selling if you don't understand futures? Not talking net price or basis or breakeven. It's all separate. Don't forget currency. The most opportunity we get on an average year is selling the spike that occurs for whatever fundamental or seasonal reason. Ill explain cycles at a later date. We get fed this bullshit from the market experts and govt that markets are "too difficult to understand" IT'S BULLSHIT! THEY DON'T UNDERSTAND because they have zero personal experience with their own money and no skin in the game. Find someone with experience and ask them. The ****ers giving us advice get paid no matter what and they have no job if we keep feeding them. Get educated from someone with experience, willing to teach. Quit being ignorant. My mentor of 7 years just past away and there was so much more I should of asked but didn't. These people are very few and far between but they are out there and willing to teach. The best are the ones that blew out their entire account and had to start over from scratch. Not the guy that says he made a fortune. The biggest issue is knowing and acknowledging your wrong as fast as possible.

[Kinger]

Thinking it's a tool is naive.


You want to capture swings in futures markets get a comodities trading account and learn to trade futures and options...


Targets tell grain companies producer sentiment and just how cheap they can get your product.

Right now I do options and other futures focused contracts but I'll probably never be 100% just futures focused. Probably increase my current level but not 100%.

Try and get the most money for your grain. Sure by doing some basic grain contracts I'm missing out on some futures opportunity. But the same could be said for doing all futures and missing out on some basis opportunity. A system which includes both is in my opinion the best of both worlds.

Do you really think graincos don't know what farmer selling points are? They know exactly what they need to be to buy grain. They also know what they can afford to pay.

[bucket]

And no one in Canadian agriculture wants to recognize the phrase like this.....

100000 tonnes sold to China for February time frame. ...


**** why have government regulated and mandated reporting....m

The families had the Canadian exchanges shitcanned because they could trade the American markets without mandated reports....


Transparency in the Canadian industry would help if you are trading....

Interesting that they families copied the protein spreads at delivery from the Americans but not the reporting??????

[macdon02]

Anyone want to hear the argument for $3.10 chi wheat? It won't be nearly as pretty as when we had fifty cent buck

[farming101]

Anyone want to hear the argument for $3.10 chi wheat? It won't be nearly as pretty as when we had fifty cent buck

Sure let's hear it. What time frame? I'm seeing 390's as a possible low in ZWH18 which would match the lows made in ZWH17 last Dec

[macdon02]

Sure let's hear it. What time frame? I'm seeing 390's as a possible low in ZWH18 which would match the lows made in ZWH17 last Dec

1.1864 close or under tomorrow in the euro will signal the launch in USD. Timeframe for $3.10? Feb likely for an intraday touch. March for lowest close. Which would be inverted to the top of 2008. Feb march split. Can we hit $2.50. Yep. But it'll depend on the close for 2017. Monthly close under August lows with higher USD anything is possible imo. I believe we are experiencing any outside reversal on a yearly level. A reverse wedge