Yellow Pea Saga

[farmaholic]

Why has canary seed S & D ending stocks been bouncing off the floor for the last three years yet prices never seem to spike? As I said once before, change the name to squirrel seed! Because inventory numbers are nuts!!!!

Besides, no one seems to know exactly how much is "squirrelled" away!

[MBgrower]

Wonder where Johnston is selling to. Is it licensed and bonded?

best find out who is the actually marketer / exporter of those peas and sell direct. too many middlemen taking their pound of flesh

[dave4441]

Why has canary seed S & D ending stocks been bouncing off the floor for the last three years yet prices never seem to spike? As I said once before, change the name to squirrel seed! Because inventory numbers are nuts!!!!

Besides, no one seems to know exactly how much is "squirrelled" away!

Because farmers lie about their production and stat numbers are garbage. It doesn't matter because it all comes down to what people actually sell and how excited the destination is about buying it. Stat numbers say zero product available to market at year end but everyone knows it is garbage data.

I find it incredibly ironic. People lie about the production but don't take advantage of the lie by selling early. Canary market peak this year was in July. There was real concern about production at that time. Markets post Jan 1 will have more product come to them in the next seven months then the previous 5 months so will likely be sloppy as apposed to firmer. Same thing every year for last 4-5 years.

The "real" carryout is about 75000 Mt each year. That's the reason it never spikes. And the reason it firmed in summer is because that number was going to be knocked down. But didn't turn out that way.