Colza.... AKA Canola

[Guest]

Furrow....someone mentioned that Primary Ag Production will be exempt. Well that's only a part of the increased (carbon)tax costs....everyone supplying goods and services will do exactly what they've been doing forever....pass their increased costs "DOWN". And I don't have that luxury.

Some how I think Ag will survive.

ps...I have no canola seed booked and a portion of my fert unsecured. I hate "seasonal price increase deadlines". Maybe if evryone quit playing "their" game.....! I'm incorporated and don't need the write-off AND the money is here to buy it. My accountant said their has to be an economic benefit to me to spend money 7-8 months in advance for a product I need that far out....and then can use up to sixty days to pay for it depending on the timing of pick up at the time of year I need it. That's up to ten months! Aren't you sick of bank rolling the crop input Industry?

trouble is , they have us by the nuts, 46 has gone up $50/mt since we bought in sept

[Kinger]

My understanding is both Argentina and Chile have been doing a lot more canola as of late but a large portion is for seed production. Mostly to be sold in Canada.

Pretty sure Idaho is the main seed sourcing area and then Chile/Argentina are the back ups.

Likely not accounting for every acre that is grown there but probably is a factor.

Or i'm wrong. 50/50

[hobbyfrmr]

I have a sick feeling , and believe 90% of us are fuked going forward if we continue to try the world export game in commodity grains . Carbon tax is coming regardless what we believe or hear . That can and will eat up to 50% of our net profits . Our cost and inefficiency of transportation to markets is making us obsolete, just re read what Dave said a few posts ago , all those transportation costs will only keep going up. When the simple transportation costs are higher than the pit prices ... it’s game over . Big farming inputs are on a one way ticket to the moon . Check grain/ oilseed / pulse prices to historic values and relate that to inflation... it’s a dead end . Even the biggest most efficient farms will eventually stumble if things continue as they are here in Canada .
Add that to skyrocketing land prices .... I see a crash again on most farms if we continue to go status quo regardless of farm size . Even for the most conservative basic family farm , run the numbers , then add on the environmental cost that’s about to be passed on to the lowest guy on the totem pole ... it’s you and I .
Everyone in Ag is milking the cow too much , it’s going to be dry ... soon .
I live and breathe Ag , but see a suffocating situation ahead.
Too many hands in too shallow of pockets, too far from commercial markets.
Without a strong bio fuels mandate and far more in depth local processing environment, even to an on farm basis, there is little if any hope for commercial grain farms looking forward 5-10 years.
Klause knows this and is trying in the right direction. We are looking way outside the box as well .
The stays quo is not going to be sustainable... at all, for any farm , not if the current direction in western Canadian Ag continues.... it’s impossible as primary producers regardless of size . Simply do the math , and look at additional costs coming that will strip your bottom line even more.
I hope I am wrong .

Dont't sugar coat it Furrow.

[Klause]

My understanding is both Argentina and Chile have been doing a lot more canola as of late but a large portion is for seed production. Mostly to be sold in Canada.

Pretty sure Idaho is the main seed sourcing area and then Chile/Argentina are the back ups.

Likely not accounting for every acre that is grown there but probably is a factor.

Or i'm wrong. 50/50

Funny story...


In the 70s ****seed was introduced in Argentina but it didn't go over well and fizzled out. In the team 1990s Canadian companies went down therlooking for a place to produce seed... And they found it... Farmers there saw what new varieties were like and that's where the acre growth started...


Once they figure out from agronomy of it... And growing canola in opposition to beans (n credits from beans are much higher there than here) we may have a problem.


So far the export shipments have only been to other Mercosur countries...

[bucket]

I think we should continue to send our people all over the world to teach foreign farmers how to destroy our markets....

We should also continue to use checkoff funds to develop private label varieties for certain processors....for essentially SFA of a ROI to the checkoff fund...

Sarcasm of course.....

You guys talk about terrorists travellers....these are no different....as an anology to the farming sector....

Our best hope is political unrest worldwide so others don't get ahead of us...

If Nebraska finds out that lentils would work under pivots without as much water....there won't be much left to grow here...

Or Africa starts to use its vast agriculture resource. ...

[AlbertaFarmer5]

And why would they purposefully grow a crop which requires much higher inputs and sells for a discount to beans? Or is it a seasonal thing where this would be the winter crop inbetween?

[ajl]

Canola also grows in Argentina without TUA's. Imagine that.

[Klause]

And why would they purposefully grow a crop which requires much higher inputs and sells for a discount to beans? Or is it a seasonal thing where this would be the winter crop inbetween?

Sells for a premium to beans there. $460 to $500 USD per tonne (cheaper still than buying from Canada and hauling it down there)

High oil content 50-52%

And yes it's grown in the winter season while beans corn and cotton get grown in summer.

[Bowerpower]

Crop production is changing. Canada is becoming a minnow in a ocean of sharks. Everyone is producing more more more.
Last resort supplier : Canada. And we should be.... we produce a very expensive bushel.

[WiltonRanch]

I am ignorant to world demand for oilseeds but it seems the world uses up all the soy farms can produce. Cereals are a different story. For the big gains in canola and soy production the price of canola doesn’t seem to drop off yet. Is demand increasing such that any new players coming on stream will bomb the market? Is more of this demand industrial or feed?

[bgmb]

I not very worried about Argentina out competing us. I am sure their economy will be wiped out by hyperinflation again soon.

[bgmb]

Also Klause, You forgot Argentina is famous for export taxes. Currently they have a 30% export tax on beans. Can't imagine that is helping their competitiveness

[Klause]

I not very worried about Argentina out competing us. I am sure their economy will be wiped out by hyperinflation again soon.

Wow.

Argentina did very well until US meddling in the mid 20th century...

With a waning US influence and hundreds of billions in Chinese investment... It's worth keeping an eye on.


China is seeing Canada as a hostile investment region... While Argentina Chile Brazil and other Mercosur countries are welcoming of the foreign capital.

Soybean Meal Exports by Country in 1000 MT

Rank Country Exports (1000 MT)
1 Argentina 28,650.00
2 Brazil 13,600.00
3 United States 9,253.00
4 India 3,950.00
5 Paraguay 2,325.00
6 Bolivia 1,290.00
7 China 1,000.00
8 EU-27 700.00
9 Canada 200.00
10 Norway 155.00

In wheat Russia bumped us to 3rd largest exporter and Argentina moved from 15th to 7th in 4 years.




Unless we start watching learning to compete between the FSU and Latin America we will be done in commodity production

[farming101]

I could be wrong, but Argentina's increased wheat exports blew out their carryover. Export amounts going forward could be volatile depending on annual production results.

[blackpowder]

Well we cant change the Rockies, or the Shield, or the muskeg and sea ice.
Right of ways for extra rail lines doesnt change the distance.
COPs will have to change. And N to S rail.