Colza.... AKA Canola

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Lots to be pessimistic about. But keep in mind, that Brazil, Argentina, Ukraine, Russia etc. have virtually all their eggs in one basket. Commodities. While low prices will be curing low prices, their economies will suffer disproportionately to ours. We certainly could be more diversified, but are in a much better position to survive an extended period of very low commodity prices than they are, where virtually all government revenues come from commodity production. What will the tax burden be on the farmer, the currency implications, the interest rates (and they are already substantial). The civil unrest, the government instability. They may be on a path to taking over, but it won't be without substantial bumps in the road. How many infrastructure projects get delayed for decades yet again as governments run out of revenues.

[dmlfarmer]

Lots to be pessimistic about. But keep in mind, that Brazil, Argentina, Ukraine, Russia etc. have virtually all their eggs in one basket. Commodities. While low prices will be curing low prices, their economies will suffer disproportionately to ours. We certainly could be more diversified, but are in a much better position to survive an extended period of very low commodity prices than they are, where virtually all government revenues come from commodity production. What will the tax burden be on the farmer, the currency implications, the interest rates (and they are already substantial). The civil unrest, the government instability. They may be on a path to taking over, but it won't be without substantial bumps in the road. How many infrastructure projects get delayed for decades yet again as governments run out of revenues.

You are ignoring the change in policy by China. China is investing heavily in Brazil, Argentina, Africa agricultural related infrastructure. Why simply buy US debt when they can use the same funds to build railways, port facilities, and roadways which will enable them to access needed imports cheaper in the long run. For example, they recently announced US 50 billion in investments in Brazil alone. On the drawing board there is a railroad to the Pacific, which will eventually provide a rail link across the continent. We sit here and complain about poor rail service to move our grain yet our major competitor is getting our major market to build a railway to move their grains to the west coast. Not only is China's strategy good for securing needed imports but is a great way to raise its profile in the world. Meanwhile we sit here and claim the free market will solve all our problems. There is no such thing as the free market in food production anymore. Between the few global grain companies which dominate the market, government trading and interference, and the lack of any cooperation, coordination, and market power of farmers in the world, the free market is a joke in farming.

[furrowtickler]

I wonder how much carbon tax Brazil and Argentina farmers are going to have to pay in the coming years ? 🤔

[AlbertaFarmer5]

You are ignoring the change in policy by China. China is investing heavily in Brazil, Argentina, Africa agricultural related infrastructure. Why simply buy US debt when they can use the same funds to build railways, port facilities, and roadways which will enable them to access needed imports cheaper in the long run. For example, they recently announced US 50 billion in investments in Brazil alone. On the drawing board there is a railroad to the Pacific, which will eventually provide a rail link across the continent. We sit here and complain about poor rail service to move our grain yet our major competitor is getting our major market to build a railway to move their grains to the west coast. Not only is China's strategy good for securing needed imports but is a great way to raise its profile in the world. Meanwhile we sit here and claim the free market will solve all our problems. There is no such thing as the free market in food production anymore. Between the few global grain companies which dominate the market, government trading and interference, and the lack of any cooperation, coordination, and market power of farmers in the world, the free market is a joke in farming.

Exactly. " will eventually provider a rail link" we have been hearing that for decades already. But even Chinese investment will dry up during periods of extremely low commodity prices. No doubt it will happen, but likely not in the time frame many are expecting.

[bucket]

But when you look at the stats Canada's rail system has stagnated in relation to trend ....at least south America is building to the future....

We are resigning to the past....

Even if south America does nothing they are still gaining on us....while we ignore what should or has to be done....

[Kinger]

Both China and Saudi Arabia are looking to protect there food sources for the future.

The port G3 is building honestly doesn't need to be built when you look at our production, elevator space, and domestic use. But they aren't just building it to make money they are building it to protect their food sources.

COFCO(China's food buying agency) opened last year a trading floor in Winnipeg. Haven't heard anything regarding what is going on there but wouldn't surprise me if they started sourcing grain in the future for themselves directly.

More players in the game competing for grain is a better thing for us. For now.

The low prices cures low prices/ high prices cure high prices also applies to grain companies.

If they start struggling we will see more consolidation and/or closing of elevators in extremely competitive markets. cough Red River Valley cough.

Likely getting ahead of myself as that's more like a 10 year or longer problem than a next year one.
Or i'm just totally out to lunch and wrong. 50/50

[bucket]

""""The port G3 is building honestly doesn't need to be built when you look at our production, elevator space, and domestic use......"""""

A 2013 episode is happening on the west coast right now and we don't need more port space???....Churchill is retired so others have to make up some of that ....plus higher trend line yields ....

I question some people's thinking.....

[dmlfarmer]

Exactly. " will eventually provider a rail link" we have been hearing that for decades already. But even Chinese investment will dry up during periods of extremely low commodity prices. No doubt it will happen, but likely not in the time frame many are expecting.

AF5: China already has established a US$20 billion fund for railway work in Brazil and is currently accepting proposals for projects. [URL="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-china-infrastructure/brazil-china-open-20-billion-fund-for-infrastructure-tech-projects-idUSKBN19H2NP"]https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-china-infrastructure/brazil-china-open-20-billion-fund-for-infrastructure-tech-projects-idUSKBN19H2NP[/URL]

As of 2 years ago China had already purchased 12 million acres of farmland in Africa. It is only a matter of time until they build the infrastructure to bring these lands into production. Maybe not in the next few years, but it will happen a lot quicker than you think.

It has also been reported in major media that China has secured long term 50 year lease of millions of acres of Ukraine farmland and is leasing Russian, Laos, and Cambodian farmland.

Chinese investment is agriculture is already well established and this is the customer we have been told is critical to our farming industry.

[Kinger]

""""The port G3 is building honestly doesn't need to be built when you look at our production, elevator space, and domestic use......"""""

A 2013 episode is happening on the west coast right now and we don't need more port space???....Churchill is retired so others have to make up some of that ....plus higher trend line yields ....

I question some people's thinking.....

But is the issue port space or rail ways?

Looking at port and what is planned for expansions on the existing Vancouver terminals that should in a normal year handle what we grow. Especially so with the new and expanded crush plants in Canada and the new elevators either shipping directly to the US or just over the border attached to a main US line.

Churchhill was a joke. 186,000mt of grain shipped is less than one elevator yearly shipping. Back in the day it did pretty good when the CWB just brought grain in and sat on it.

Lots of complaints regarding how we keep pushing yield up for no reason. There is a reason. When the price is really good you want to ensure you have as many bushels to sell as possible. Even if the price sucks having more bushels is better than less. Until we can predict to a T what the prices of commodities will be it's always better to have more than less.

I'm all for more port space. But looking at it from a realistic perspective both port and elevator space are going to be overbuilt in the next 5 years. Elevator space already so in some places.

[bucket]

I guess farmers have built bins and will continue to outpace the industry in storage space....people are sadly mistaken that this system is working well when an individual a mile outside moose jaw has built more storage than the majors that have been there for 75 years. ...

[Kinger]

I guess farmers have built bins and will continue to outpace the industry in storage space....people are sadly mistaken that this system is working well when an individual a mile outside moose jaw has built more storage than the majors that have been there for 75 years. ...

That's good for him and I hope he can make it payoff. But the comparison between farmer storage and elevator storage are very different things.

Say a 25,000mt elevator gets one 10,000 train every 3 weeks that is equal to 180,000mt of storage in reality over the year. And honestly most elevators are shipping closer or higher than 250,000mt of grain per year.

Having the ability to be flexible is something that can pay off greatly so I still think having storage for at least 3/4 of your average crop is a good idea.

[farming101]

There is likely not more than half a dozen elevators in all of Manitoba shipping 250,000 or more a year
In 2015-16 there were half a dozen points, some with more than one elevator , that did 250K

26 points in SK and 30 in Alberta in 2015-16

[Klause]

Every. Single. News Show.


Has reports on growing canola, how to do it, how it's good for the land... how it's more profitable than Trigo (wheat).


Oh Boy.

[Klause]

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