Statistics Canada's Canola Estimate is Puzzling! Industry and Farmers?

[farming101]

The curious part is that the market action is not reflecting the bearishness of the data presented.

One thought is at this stage in the marketing year the buyers don't know and no one can afford to be wrong betting on a bearish ending stocks scenario. Risk will get squared away as time goes by

Or maybe crop insurance production numbers are starting to leak out

[sumdumguy]

It would be good to know how Stats Can compiles their statistics. How much manipulation and massaging do they do to farmer-submitted stats. It could be same as the manipulation of temperature records. By the way, it's snowing in southern Texas. Very suspicious with fake news, fake stats, fake everything.

[bucket]

Sumdumguy



They collect acre data around plots and apply plot yield .....is that enough massaging?

[Guest]

It would be good to know how Stats Can compiles their statistics. How much manipulation and massaging do they do to farmer-submitted stats. It could be same as the manipulation of temperature records. By the way, it's snowing in southern Texas. Very suspicious with fake news, fake stats, fake everything.

and not a word of the snow on trump news (that's what I call ctv now) or anywhere else, wtf ??? that should be news ? no ?

[Agvocate]

If you have interest in how they come up with the numbers you can go to the statistics Canada website and read the methodology. Or you can just make up what you think they do. That said the yield they are using seems pretty reasonable, and in line with most reports that were circulating prior to the report. The extra production is coming from higher seeded acres (22,997,100) and a very high harvested acres number of 22,896,300 which is 99.56% of the seeded acres. That seems a bit high, typical S&D's use 98% as a plug and then adjust in the fall depending on weather. There should be less than 2% abandonment but almost 100% of seeded being harvested is aggressive. For the last decade however the final production has been increased from the Dec report the following summer 9 of 10 years once crush and export numbers were known. Perhaps they are trying to get in front of that on this go around. Either way it may be slightly high but certainly not unrealistic. The demand is there to use it so the large crop isn't massively bearish. Front month has been chopping $20 either side of $500/MT for 2 years, don't expect these numbers change that.

[Crestliner]

Argue, nash your teeth and bitch and moan all you want about Stats Canada Numbers....the fact is, over the long term, they have been very close to reality. In any event the numbers are taken seriously by World customers for our grain and have a big part in forming their perspectives, which effects demand, purchasing decisions and eventually prices.

The real question is why do we spend so much time and money giving great market intelligence that help our customers make purchasing decisions that at times work against us the primary producer in the form of lower prices.

The Russians and South Americans (who are our greatest competitors) excercise a campaign of disinformation all the time to help their cause. Maybe if you get 40 canola you should report 30 the next time they call....haha just a suggestion.

[Crestliner]

Great....this should help the canola market...Not!!

https://www.newsmax.com/health/health-news/canola-oil-brain-health/2017/12/07/id/830490/

[Agvocate]

Great....this should help the canola market...Not!!

https://www.newsmax.com/health/health-news/canola-oil-brain-health/2017/12/07/id/830490/

It was on sciencedaily.com as well. Certainly won't help the market.

[malleefarmer]

Think aussie canola will come in better than first thought as well

[ajl]

Wonder who paid for this study?