Grain markets are "like the slow drip of a leaky faucet that no one can fix."

[farmaholic]

I do think there is some retail inflation.... anything that is packaged is being packed into smaller quantities and costing more.....the package may cost a bit less but what ever unit price they're selling it for is higher! And anything that can't be "repackaged" is simply costing more per unit. I'm talking everyday consumer goods. Just take note sometime. Not real big ticket items. But I don't track this professionally so WTH do I know.

But I don't think anyone is arguing this point..... the topic is commodity deflation. What do you mean there could be an adjustment..... Like in 2008 and after that land prices went full retard? Geez just what farmers need...an extension to the parabolic rise in land prices. Ya ya ya,,,, there he is whining again about land being too expensive.... well let me tell you, no young farmers here can afford to buy it!

[helmsdale]

Errol,

Regardless of the market, no one seems to give a damn about fundamentals anymore. Capital no longer seeks long term return which relies upon fundamentals. It's all about the short term.

[farmaholic]

Thread title: Grain markets are "like the slow drip of a leaky faucet that no one can fix."

Solution: Turn off the supply.....the drip will stop.

[errolanderson]

Thread title: Grain markets are "like the slow drip of a leaky faucet that no one can fix."

Solution: Turn off the supply.....the drip will stop.

Turning off the supply in a deflationary global market won't work well (IMO).

Demand is king, not supply. Markets quickly find their way around supply issues and now at discounted prices.

What we were taught in economics school is having trouble standing up in this strained debt-ridden global environment.

[crusher]

Perhaps mother nature will adjust the supply situation.

[RWT101]

You are absolutely right Crusher.

Mother Nature will 'adjust' the markets with a couple of cool, if not cold, years.

Just look at at Mallee's pic of the grain less wheat some are combining in Oz.

And we are not yet at the bottom of the sunspot cycle.

Stay tuned.

[farmaholic]

So it only matters when Mother Nature interrupts the supply....not the producers holding the supply?

[farmaholic]

I guess so, when there is none there is none.

[fjlip]

So it only matters when Mother Nature interrupts the supply....not the producers holding the supply?

However if you can STORE it... in 60's Dad said the price was $0.60 / bu. NO quota, they stored some for 3 years. In 1967 he hauled wheat for weeks with OPEN QUOTA, not sure of price.
Only a 300 bu truck and shoveling wooden bins, but 4 mile haul, dream of that today.

[RWT101]

Looks like this grain marketing thingy has been going on for a long, long time, like 4000 years.


"Genesis 41:53-57New International Version (NIV)

The seven years of abundance in Egypt came to an end, and the seven years of famine began, just as Joseph had said. There was famine in all the other lands, but in the whole land of Egypt there was food. When all Egypt began to feel the famine, the people cried to Pharaoh for food. Then Pharaoh told all the Egyptians, “Go to Joseph and do what he tells you.”

When the famine had spread over the whole country, Joseph opened all the storehouses and sold grain to the Egyptians, for the famine was severe throughout Egypt. And all the world came to Egypt to buy grain from Joseph, because the famine was severe everywhere."


The biblical quote starts off this book - WEATHER CYCLES - Real or Imaginary? by W J Burroughs

Fascinating read on cycles and how the sun influences the weather on earth.

Nobody has figured it out yet for sure which makes this relationship the Holy Grail of weather and climate.

I bought the book to figure out the relationship between grain prices and the sun.
People, like Jevons, as far back as the 1700s saw a relationship but did not know how it was caused.

I have an idea in general how it works but it is not yet possible to forecast a drought of say 30 to 60 days in a specific area, like western Canada.
Nor will it probably ever be possible to be that specific, from what I've seen.

Sure would help grain marketing if one could though.