Canola

[farming101]

How much high green count canola was produced this year ? Would the high green count late canola be added into the last stats can numbers

Yes, and then some...

[Oliver88]

January futures expire December 28th.

Cost to roll as of now is $7-8 per tonne.

[Stampsguy]

On a tangent - sorry. What about wheat!!

NASS report on wheat was out Dec. 14th. The acres not harvested were 4,626,000 acres for the top 7 wheat producing states. 22.2 million planted acres for the same 7 states. 21% lost. No mention of this in any market analysis briefing. Really makes you wonder who is steering the ship!

[farming101]

Wheat-The North American supply situation will likely just mean that Canada's 2017-18 crop will keep flowing. Unless the railways decide they are too busy to haul it.
The US market is working to preserve ending stocks and its doing a good job so far. World wheat situation is saying don't expect much higher prices any time soon for lower protein wheat. High protein, maybe.
Price premiums will likely appear in the form of the much despised "specials" just to fill an order

[bucket]

The railways are not hauling grain now ffs
...what do mean if they decide not to haul it....

[Oliver88]

Canola is in a steady decline pattern.
January Futures dropped over $30/tonne from its high.

[bucket]

The logic doesn't follow for me ....the canola council or whoever has a goal of 25mmt by 2025 or some ridiculous goal....that all it seems that happens is guys try to grow more to make less per bushel....

IMHO the logic makes no sense....

And stats can keeps propping the numbers to reduce the per bushel returns.....make it up on volume. ...

[GDR]

I wonder how much farmer selling is going on to influence price direction. Do guys shut it off and wait it out or do guys panic as the price drops then flood the market and have it drop even further?

Some disclosure or interpretation maybe would be helpful to see who is moving markets when they do. If it's all traders adjusting position I would think at some point the guys with the product or the end users will be in the drivers seat. We had "specials" here 25cents above market before Christmas for January movement that were only good for the day, then that day lasted for about 3 days. My guess is that there is not as much selling going on as they would like us to believe.

There was some good selling opportunities since harvest but I do think we all get greedy waiting for more that doesn't always materialize.

75% of ours was sold well and is gone. Rest is gonna wait till next rally maybe till summer. Hoping that will turn out ok but who knows.

[farming101]

Canola basis is a fair bit better than last year at this time. Still some buying to do.
Where will the futures price be is the question.

[errolanderson]

Canola basis is a fair bit better than last year at this time. Still some buying to do.
Where will the futures price be is the question.

Please take as an opinion, but technically canola is quite oversold. But fundamentally, there are struggles. Exports have slowed for both beans and canola. Funds are also liquidating long positions ahead of year end. News of tighter China soybean FM requirements to 1% effective Jan 1 also overhanging U.S. beans.