Canola

[Oliver88]

Canola is in a steady decline pattern.
January Futures dropped over $30/tonne from its high.

[bucket]

The logic doesn't follow for me ....the canola council or whoever has a goal of 25mmt by 2025 or some ridiculous goal....that all it seems that happens is guys try to grow more to make less per bushel....

IMHO the logic makes no sense....

And stats can keeps propping the numbers to reduce the per bushel returns.....make it up on volume. ...

[GDR]

I wonder how much farmer selling is going on to influence price direction. Do guys shut it off and wait it out or do guys panic as the price drops then flood the market and have it drop even further?

Some disclosure or interpretation maybe would be helpful to see who is moving markets when they do. If it's all traders adjusting position I would think at some point the guys with the product or the end users will be in the drivers seat. We had "specials" here 25cents above market before Christmas for January movement that were only good for the day, then that day lasted for about 3 days. My guess is that there is not as much selling going on as they would like us to believe.

There was some good selling opportunities since harvest but I do think we all get greedy waiting for more that doesn't always materialize.

75% of ours was sold well and is gone. Rest is gonna wait till next rally maybe till summer. Hoping that will turn out ok but who knows.

[farming101]

Canola basis is a fair bit better than last year at this time. Still some buying to do.
Where will the futures price be is the question.

[errolanderson]

Canola basis is a fair bit better than last year at this time. Still some buying to do.
Where will the futures price be is the question.

Please take as an opinion, but technically canola is quite oversold. But fundamentally, there are struggles. Exports have slowed for both beans and canola. Funds are also liquidating long positions ahead of year end. News of tighter China soybean FM requirements to 1% effective Jan 1 also overhanging U.S. beans.