$60 Crude = 80 cent Loonie

[errolanderson]

WTI crude oil is now surging above $60 per barrel pulling the loonie to 80 cents and possibly higher (IMO).

Recent stiff fallout in the U.S. dollar (USD) is contributing to Cdn dollar strength as well. This may be a rough year for the American greenback as the U.S. budgetary crisis broils and the Fed may be hard pressed to make their promised 4 rate hikes in 2018 while unwinding their massive $4.5 trillion balance sheet. Talking-the-talk is a lot easier than walking-the-walk . . . . Neither will happen in 2018 in my view.

There also appears to be a genuine threat of an incoming U.S. recession which could trigger more desperation of renewed money printing stateside (QE4). Shrinking bond yield spreads now telling a story.

Power of global central banks are definitely fading, gradually losing their manipulative market influence.

Welcome to 2018 . . . .

[Oliver88]

Riots in Iran pushing up crude oil price?

[bucket]

What is the discounted price of crude feeding the western Canadian refineries?


Pretty important point....

[farmaholic]

Remember when crude was about $145 a barrel and gas prices were about $1.24/liter

Now gas prices are a bit over a buck and crude 60....

That important detail? If that argument is even relevant.....I'm sure there's a legitimate explanation.

[errolanderson]

Riots in Iran pushing up crude oil price?

Believe Libya pipeline explosion shutting day 70,000 to 100,000 barrels per day contributing to oil price strength.

[macdon02]

Remember when crude was about $145 a barrel and gas prices were about $1.24/liter

Now gas prices are a bit over a buck and crude 60....

That important detail? If that argument is even relevant.....I'm sure there's a legitimate explanation.

Cad was 1.10 early 2008

[ajl]

Crude is peaking here. Cold snap is over, keystone is back in action which will narrow spread between Alberta sludge and west Texas, US pumping oil with all its might so oil will be back under $50 by late Feb. Good place to short loon here as $USD rises from here. I doubt there will be 4 raises in US interest rates in 18 as well, one or two more likely. I just hope that there will be at least one rate rise in Canuckistan this year. If there are farms with $126 million dollar mortgages here, we need rising rates badly.

[farming101]

ajl, I agree. CAD will have a tough time getting over 80 and could easily lose a penny in here. Oil might have another 3-5% in it but is ripe for a pullback

Wheat is interesting. A combination of a lower USD and cold weather created enough energy for a small gap up in Chicago and KC. MW didn't put in a showing. I would keep my eye on Kansas wheat for a while.
Drought conditions ongoing in some areas.

Gold doing well too. Should match the sept 17 high with a shot at the summer 2016 high

[the big wheel]

Will eventually be traded with bitcoin so possible it won't matter what any individual country economy is doing. The value will be set world wide? That is unless the people with the money change the rules.

[the big wheel]

It pays to elect idiots so that the dollar doesn't increase. We know what we re doing!! HahahHa

[Redone]

Errol,
Do you sell gold futures? NO offense, but the only other person I hear talk the way you do, sell gold and precious metals on the radio on Sunday morning

[errolanderson]

Errol,
Do you sell gold futures? NO offense, but the only other person I hear talk the way you do, sell gold and precious metals on the radio on Sunday morning

Gold suffers from global deflationary pressures and a sharp decline in physical gold buying demand by India consumers. Precious metal prices have done very little over the past five years and remains 30% below highs seen in 2012 during the China economic miracle period.

Recent temporary jumps in gold have been driven by geo-political events driving spec buying ie: North Korea. Gold prices needs the support of global inflation to thrive and maintain strength. Spec buying alone will not maintain gold rallies (IMO) . . . .