$60 Crude = 80 cent Loonie

[Rareearth]

Errol if CDN $ is tied to price of oil expect it to go down.

It’s cheaper and easier than ever to produce oil, and natural gas. Fracking is easier and better than ever, horizontal drilling, exploration, etc. Company costs are way down, cost per barrel way down,

Trump isn’t going to import oil any more, he is going to be full out oil drilling and self sufficiency, ( they buy lots from Canada) drilling in the US gulf, Alaska and the Arctic, usa protected reserves, etc

And we will have carbon tax ☹️

[errolanderson]

Errol if CDN $ is tied to price of oil expect it to go down.

It’s cheaper and easier than ever to produce oil, and natural gas. Fracking is easier and better than ever, horizontal drilling, exploration, etc. Company costs are way down, cost per barrel way down,

Trump isn’t going to import oil any more, he is going to be full out oil drilling and self sufficiency, ( they buy lots from Canada) drilling in the US gulf, Alaska and the Arctic, usa protected reserves, etc

And we will have carbon tax ☹️

Personally feel the U.S. dollar is in for some rough waters through 2018. The U.S. is at-risk of falling into recession despite a record-breaking stock market. Quite an economic irony. But the astronomical U.S. debt is insurmountable and will cost growth for the next generation.

And the Fed wants to hike rates 4X in 2018 while beginning to unwind their $4.5 trillion balance sheet (sell bonds) at the same time? In my opinion, 'not a hope-in-hell'. The U.S. economy is in no state to handle the training wheels coming off this fast. A wrong move by the Fed could quickly spark a recession. And the next recession could be a dandy as the Federal Reserve has now run out of economic life jackets.

Global oil is priced in U.S. dollars. A weakening USD supports oil prices. Realize the economic hurdles in Canada, but investment money is now flowing out of the U.S. and away from the USD (IMO). The loonie may get support by accident from international investment osmosis (if that makes any sense).

It's truly a crazy economic world out there . . . .

[bucket]

Won't they just switch to crypto currencies and the crisis will be averted?


My sides hurt too from laughing so hard.

[macdon02]

If crude holds 62.6 Friday we ratchet to the next level. Starting to wonder if .91 CAD is a possibility. Timing showing April next major turn if higher here on CAD.

[macdon02]

That's off the table... for now

[danny W1M]

Heard a lot of talk this afternoon about the NAFTA talks breaking down. Canada trying to get ahead of this by taking the USA to the WTO for complaints. USA putting tariffs on pulp newsprint. The suggestion that the USA would call a halt to trade talks. Non of that sounds good for the Canadian dollar. What if they halt shipments of crude to the US? maybe grain? manufactured goods? any scenario like that won't help our dollar either.

[farming101]

That's off the table... for now

Searching for new indicators here. Best guess is CAD more or less sideways/channel for now. Gut feeling is it should be going down but it keeps surprising by hanging in there. Still, long term indicators are saying 82 plus is the level it has to go above and stay above if it is going higher.
While a pullback in oil would not be surprising, what would be surprising is if it cratered. I think over the next year WTI will continue to rise or at least hold its own. The products have potential for more upside too. Gas over diesel

[15444]

All over print news online this evening that Canada suspects Trump to cancel NAFTA at end of month after next trade talks 23-28th (can't remember exact days). Canada not going to budge on US demands so down the shitter it goes. Maybe Trump can reopen the Canada-US trade agreement afterwards and really make Dumbo squirm.