Lentil bids finally australia

[malleefarmer]

Pffffft doesnt give you a warm fuzzy glow does it

[dave4441]

Canada will have a 50% carryover @ July 31. We are long from the bottom yet this will get greasy.

[iceman]

Bins are empty !

Negative

Bins are not empty?
No where close
The amount of reds or pulses for that matter parked on farms right now is absolutely mind blowing.
Save the whole "lots were contacted and they just haven't taken them yet" that's not the case.
It's a old fashioned stand off but maybe India doesn't blink first.

This may take awhile to play out and hopefully the stockmarket doesn't drop a J Dam bomb on are little farming bunker. Look out than.

Iceman Out

[malleefarmer]

Not bullshitting ya.
Have a collegue in SA prime lentil area they grow 2.5 to 3 t ha average sitting on 1050 tonne from 2016 harvest and around 600 from 2017 harvest he cuts his acres back.

His bins should have been empty in 16.

Again not sure if its bullshit "ghost ships" of pulses floating around in sub continent mid east full of peas and lentils no home to go to. Growers paid Traders Fooked not for the feint hearted

[dave4441]

Not bullshitting ya.
Have a collegue in SA prime lentil area they grow 2.5 to 3 t ha average sitting on 1050 tonne from 2016 harvest and around 600 from 2017 harvest he cuts his acres back.

His bins should have been empty in 16.

Again not sure if its bullshit "ghost ships" of pulses floating around in sub continent mid east full of peas and lentils no home to go to. Growers paid Traders Fooked not for the feint hearted

yes, its true. There are growers in Canada holding 2016 crop reds as well. Fumigation issue has been relaxed by india but changes nothing because there is no sales.

[bucket]

Are processors slowing or going to no bid.....and how does the outlook for those businesses look going forward?


We all have to make some money along the way....and this giant wrench that got thrown into the gears is seemingly coming back onto the farm gate to absorb....

[farmaholic]

....always does. Seems to me there's only one place for them to recover their loses.

[Kinger]

India will lift the tarriffs when they have nearly 0 lentils left. They put this on to get a better price for there farmers and have them sell. Once they stop they will lift the ban.

When that happens chances are Canada still will not ship much for lentils to India. Black sea still cheaper, Australia closer, etc.

It should help out other markets like China or Bangladesh just by adding more buying competition.

We'll see a bit of a spike. Won't be anything crazy on our end.

Or I'm totally wrong. 50/50 either way.

[dave4441]

This will eventually go to no bid but will take a few months. There has been speculative buying by red lentil markets on the way down. Traders overseas thought that 20 cents was the bottom so they bought. Then they thought 18 was cheap. If it goes 15 or lower (15 = $9/bushel) demand will come to Canada but it will have to be cheap. It is exactly correct, once they need the product, peas or lentils they will drop the duties and the fumigation issue. The reason our prices are down is they don't have any need for the product. At all. This has been a obvious issue for 6 months yet many people have told growers to hold onto product, it will get better in Jan. Well January is here and that dog don't hunt. And the same people advising growers are now blaming the fumigation/duty issue for low prices and demand. These fumigation/duty issues are BECAUSE of the lack of demand, not causing the lack of demand. This is a personal issue for me because i believe people maintained this bullish view to continue selling you, Sask farmers, market advise. Complete bullshit.

Aug-Nov we shipped 500,000 MT of lentils and last year we shipped 1.1 million MT. We will have 1.5 million MT left over, or stocks/use of 50%. This is 2005 stuff when we got to 8 cents on #2 large green lentils. Green lentils are still a good price. 30 is a huge number. Take a look at a chart, this will get to 25 soon as well.

Peas has a much more diverse demand profile and has weathered it much better. But, as mentioned above we have to compete with black/baltic sea as those regions have just as much supply as Canada for the first time ever. That means sub $7/bu yellow peas eventually.

I implore people to look at the red lentil charts. It has been sliding since Dec 2015. The trend is your friend until the end when it bends. It won't bend for 12-24 months in my opinion.

[SASKFARMER3]

Dave you actually make sense.

[malleefarmer]

Sure you noticed no bids for peas or chick peas

[dave4441]

Sure you noticed no bids for peas or chick peas

Actually i missed that but i am mainly a lentil/canary guy so i am a bit blind to pea market.

It will come back once they actually need the product. Duty at 30% on a chickpea is big cost at border and not every importer in India can afford to pay it so it will slow the imports down until such time it is removed. I expect that is the reason for no bid, until they figure out where things are headed.