Crop Production Week

[farmaholic]

[QUOTE=caseih;367215]

First time ever I heard today at the show the young guns under 35 have never seen bad times. It’s time to hit reality.

Oh probably taking $6.75 for peas for fall no act of god. And we’ll grow some. It’s not 7 but a start.[/QUOTE
who has that ? pioneer here showing $4.69

Dry dry dry....too dry to even think about preselling a bushel of anything. Even if I wasn't in the Sahara Slum of the Ghetto I wouldn't presell anything. ...the Palliser's misfortune will be the rest of the Prairies fortune.

[SASKFARMER3]

Pulse buyer just out of Regina had it at the the show. 6.25 act of god.

[Guest]

[QUOTE=farmaholic;367217]

Dry dry dry....too dry to even think about preselling a bushel of anything. Even if I wasn't in the Sahara Slum of the Ghetto I wouldn't presell anything. ...the Palliser's misfortune will be the rest of the Prairies fortune.

$12 canola looking a long way off ? what are you thinking ?

[Guest]

Pulse buyer just out of Regina had it at the the show. 6.25 act of god.

$6.75 or $6.25?

[tweety]

What is the point of contracting a mediocre price?

[farmaholic]

[QUOTE=caseih;367220]

$12 canola looking a long way off ? what are you thinking ?

I agree, it took a turn for the worse but maybe it hasn't fully recovered from the Holiday hangover yet.

I don't know if I will reach my $12 goal this year. Someone who tracks exports and the crush should weigh in here. I don't think the crop is as big as some think but honestly.... WTF do I know.

What better way to open some bin doors than dramatically drop the price then when it reaches a decent level the bin doors will fly open.... guys thinking better take it before it goes back down. All the while if they would hold out it might actually have to rise some more to encourage pricing and delivery. Market phsyocology.

Imagine if a large portion of Western Canada has a huge challenge getting a canola crop established this spring.... what would that mean? A weather scare before the crop is even established. The "precipitation" weather trend here is still dry..... some guys travelling through the area are surprised how little snow there is..... but it can all change in a day! Even in spring a good heavy wet snow during spring thaw or a nice April rain and things will be looking better.

[farmaholic]

What is the point of contracting a mediocre price?

Agreed! especially without AOG.

Setting floor prices? or putting a ceiling above them?

[bucket]

From another thread albertafarmer5 made the comment.....

"""""|It occurred to me that oil producers, miners, big forestry companies, even most of the downstream livestock industry, have the following in common:

They cannot logistically, and do not, store a year or more of production.
They rarely if ever produce a product that isn't already pre-sold.*

Therefore, if they don't have the ability to pre sell it for a profit, or pre sell it at all, and no ability to store it, they won't produce it...."""""


Maybe some guys are make money at 6 dollar peas and are preselling. ...

[farmaholic]

Maybe some guys are make money at 6 dollar peas and are preselling. ...

I suppose everyone's profitable pricing point is different! You may be able to roughly calculate your input costs today but cut the expected yield by 25-50% and see what that does to the break even per bushel!

[bucket]

Farmaholic

There isn't a crop that makes money right now....

Sure if you can grow 60 bpa of every crop your inputs are lower since you don't need crop insurance...

My issue with all of this is simple ...why isn't the bushel price of grain keeping up with everything else?....

Oil is in oversupply but gas keeps going up..

Machinery costs outpace inflation...

[farming101]

From another thread farming101 made the comment.....

"""""|It occurred to me that oil producers, miners, big forestry companies, even most of the downstream livestock industry, have the following in common:

They cannot logistically, and do not, store a year or more of production.
They rarely if ever produce a product that isn't already pre-sold.*

Therefore, if they don't have the ability to pre sell it for a profit, or pre sell it at all, and no ability to store it, they won't produce it...."""""


Maybe some guys are make money at 6 dollar peas and are preselling. ...

Can't take credit for that statement.....AF5 I think

[bucket]

Farming101


Oh shit....yes you are right ....I corrected that....

In a hurry....


but some of the logic remains ....there may be guys making money with 6 buck peas....they might live in Russia though. ..