Originally posted by SASKFARMER3
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[QUOTE=caseih;367220]Originally posted by farmaholic View Post
$12 canola looking a long way off ? what are you thinking ?
I don't know if I will reach my $12 goal this year. Someone who tracks exports and the crush should weigh in here. I don't think the crop is as big as some think but honestly.... WTF do I know.
What better way to open some bin doors than dramatically drop the price then when it reaches a decent level the bin doors will fly open.... guys thinking better take it before it goes back down. All the while if they would hold out it might actually have to rise some more to encourage pricing and delivery. Market phsyocology.
Imagine if a large portion of Western Canada has a huge challenge getting a canola crop established this spring.... what would that mean? A weather scare before the crop is even established. The "precipitation" weather trend here is still dry..... some guys travelling through the area are surprised how little snow there is..... but it can all change in a day! Even in spring a good heavy wet snow during spring thaw or a nice April rain and things will be looking better.
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Originally posted by tweety View PostWhat is the point of contracting a mediocre price?
Setting floor prices? or putting a ceiling above them?Last edited by farmaholic; Jan 10, 2018, 07:56.
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From another thread albertafarmer5 made the comment.....
"""""|It occurred to me that oil producers, miners, big forestry companies, even most of the downstream livestock industry, have the following in common:
They cannot logistically, and do not, store a year or more of production.
They rarely if ever produce a product that isn't already pre-sold.*
Therefore, if they don't have the ability to pre sell it for a profit, or pre sell it at all, and no ability to store it, they won't produce it...."""""
Maybe some guys are make money at 6 dollar peas and are preselling. ...Last edited by bucket; Jan 10, 2018, 08:33.
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Originally posted by bucket View Post
Maybe some guys are make money at 6 dollar peas and are preselling. ...
I suppose everyone's profitable pricing point is different! You may be able to roughly calculate your input costs today but cut the expected yield by 25-50% and see what that does to the break even per bushel!
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Farmaholic
There isn't a crop that makes money right now....
Sure if you can grow 60 bpa of every crop your inputs are lower since you don't need crop insurance...
My issue with all of this is simple ...why isn't the bushel price of grain keeping up with everything else?....
Oil is in oversupply but gas keeps going up..
Machinery costs outpace inflation...
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Originally posted by bucket View PostFrom another thread farming101 made the comment.....
"""""|It occurred to me that oil producers, miners, big forestry companies, even most of the downstream livestock industry, have the following in common:
They cannot logistically, and do not, store a year or more of production.
They rarely if ever produce a product that isn't already pre-sold.*
Therefore, if they don't have the ability to pre sell it for a profit, or pre sell it at all, and no ability to store it, they won't produce it...."""""
Maybe some guys are make money at 6 dollar peas and are preselling. ...
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Most oil producers are price takers as well as farmers. AB sludge was selling for $30 Us a couple of weeks ago because it was hard to get rid off due to Keystone pipeline outage. Most do hedge on futures markets a fair bit which is easier to do when weather is not a total wildcard. They can be affected by weather too.
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Originally posted by farming101 View PostCorrect...But precious little can be done about the price of peas in Russia.
Buy otherwise... Yeah.
Once the silk road is complete we are done. Russia to China for $11 in freight.
They get $8 we get $5 because of freight differences.
Not to mention a higher yielding higher producing climate and geography.
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Klause
Yuuup!!!!!! You hit the nail right on the head.....
Russia has the crow rate to create wealth while Canada redistributes it....thru graincos and railways....
Tearing up infrastructure that those countries would love to have and they will while we have leaders with their head up their ass. ...
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We will likely see more trade protectionism in the near future. Hopefully after the next election in Canada.
Maybe even more reverse vertical integration with end users which would be nice to see.
Just the landscape we have now.
Back to the main topic, not at the show but heard from a few buddies it's pretty good this year. Even with the negativity. Not much for prices though.
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