Trumps NAFTA strategy

[macdon02]

I think the strategy for Trump has been and will be: “sure, we can have NAFTA – if it looks like this, this, and this, including no China pass-through fraud.”

Those positions will be broadcast, and will sound reasonable to the average American. But since they change the relation from Canada or Mexico exploiting us, there will be no big advantage for NAFTA for either of them, anymore. [I am sure NAFTA got in place in the first place because it had a bunch of sweetheart deals for congressmen.]

Canada and Mexico will see the deal on the table, and will themselves walk away.

This advance notice is
1. to set people’s expectations for the eventual non-renewal
2. help the economic shock be spread out, in Mex and CA.
3. try to spin it to make it look like Trump ended it all, not Canada or Mexico.

Thoughts?

[Klause]

I think the strategy for Trump has been and will be: “sure, we can have NAFTA – if it looks like this, this, and this, including no China pass-through fraud.”

Those positions will be broadcast, and will sound reasonable to the average American. But since they change the relation from Canada or Mexico exploiting us, there will be no big advantage for NAFTA for either of them, anymore. [I am sure NAFTA got in place in the first place because it had a bunch of sweetheart deals for congressmen.]

Canada and Mexico will see the deal on the table, and will themselves walk away.

This advance notice is
1. to set people’s expectations for the eventual non-renewal
2. help the economic shock be spread out, in Mex and CA.
3. try to spin it to make it look like Trump ended it all, not Canada or Mexico.

Thoughts?

After that idiotic stunt Canada pulled today taking the us to the WTO on behalf of other countries... I don't think anybody in Ottawa has a clue. Ffks.


If there is no NAFTA china has no reason to trade with us anymore. They already stopped investment here.


Not to mention it will bring on the collapse of our efnomy and possibly very high inflation

[Horse]

I don't fully understand NAFTA other than milk, feathers and soft wood lumber, what are the other trade irritants. We all looked at the high prices the us was paying for grain and got rid of the CWB thinking we was going to clean up, how has that worked ?? The supply managed sector is raping the Canadian populist much like the oil workers did Si personally I feel its a time for roll back on prices.

[the big wheel]

China is not slowing investment. It just is being hidden better. You think there weren't a bunch of full pockets over that GTH deal. There's shit going on there that would make you cringe.

[SASKFARMER3]

Big wheel give up on the GTA already thats a dead horse.

This thing JT did yesterday is totally idiotic. But look who is running the country a total group of morons.

Horse their is more to this than feathers etc.

Its huge and we have sent a mouse to do a battle with a whole heard of elephants.

Our idiot hasn't got a clue.

But peace love and free dope and all is good.

[Daylate]

Can't believe we are trying to be ambassadors dor the rest of the world. The claims from Canada on US trade issues are not beneficial to us. Our government is creating a wake of damage that is going to effect everyone in this country that sells product to US. LIBERALS ARE QUIETLY DESTROYING CANADA

[grassfarmer]

What would your approach be to renegotiating NAFTA with the US given that they are so much larger and have always been the bully in the room on this issue and now captained by an unstable lunatic? You don't seem to approve of yesterday's move which in my view was a counter threat to demonstrate that we have some power. What should Canada's approach be? roll over and play dead, fight a tactical battle or give up on it completely?

[farmaholic]

I would bet some of the biggest negotiations some of the members of our trade delegations were ever involved in were who was going to wash or dry the dishes and who is going to clean the bathroom or sweep/vacuum the floors.....AT HOME.

[bucket]

I don't understand the softwood lumber thing....the US can buy Canadian lumber but instead makes it more expensive?



Same with peas lentils and chickpeas in india. At 25 cents they were called cheap imports so they raise the price domestically....

Isn't that self defeating inflation?


But a better question is why can't our governments of any stripe just say to India and the states ....we are not accepting your imports?

Well other than we are only 30 million people and don't matter...

[ajl]

The reason there won't be a deal is too many people in Canuckistan think like grass here. The US is the bully so we don't take there concern seriously. The dairy issue is a legitimate complaint after the stunt that Dairy farmer of Ontario did over ultra filtered milk. We all know that back dooring goes on as lots of Canadians list their occupation as the import/export business. What is that exactly? The Trump administration has to deal with enough children in the US. I would have just terminated NAFTA and not bothered with the dog and pony show.

[macdon02]

The softwood deal is over stumpage fees, I don't know the exact details but it's due to most lumber in Canada coming off crown lands and most US coming off private. Our govt doesn't charge as much for tree removal as private citizens so in the eyes of the US it's a subsidy. Plus knock off the currency difference which causes most trade irritants and that's the issues. They are protecting made in USA industry because that's the hand that feeds them.

[macdon02]

What I find pathetic is the Canadian govt sees more mileage in a wto complaint over a dying industry (paper) then standing up to India over food. But after watching the pipeline show I'm starting to wonder if exports are even a priority? You can't pay the bills by saving the world. I think Brett Wilson had it right yesterday on BNN